As the dust settles from Thailand’s hard-fought election campaign, many voters are left wondering what just happened.
Pre-election opinion polls had consistently pointed to a strong showing by the progressive People’s Party. Several forecasts even suggested it could secure more than 200 seats, building on its solid 151-seat performance in 2023 under its previous name, Move Forward.
Few surveys placed Prime Minister Anutin Chanvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party in the lead.
Stunning reversal in seat count
Yet when most votes were counted, Bhumjaithai emerged with a clear victory, projected to hold more than 190 seats. This opens a straightforward path for Anutin to form the next government, likely with coalition partners.
The young reformists, despite their creative and tech-driven campaign, suffered a significant setback against a more traditional, transactional party known mainly for its deep loyalty to the monarchy.
Role of the mixed voting system
Thailand’s electoral system requires voters to cast two ballots: one for a local constituency candidate and one for a preferred party.
Nationally, the People’s Party performed strongly on the party-list vote, gathering nearly 10 million votes compared with just under six million for Bhumjaithai. Still, this marked a sharp drop from the more than 14 million secured by Move Forward in 2023.
However, party-list seats make up only 20 percent of the 500-member parliament.
The remaining 80 percent come from first-past-the-post constituency races, where the candidate with the most votes wins outright.
Rural networks prove decisive
This constituency-based system exposed the People’s Party’s relative weakness. As a newer, largely urban-based movement, it lacks the extensive rural networks needed to dominate local contests.
Bhumjaithai, in contrast, excels at securing the support of influential local power-brokers who hold sway over voters in their areas.
Anutin has steadily built the party from a modest provincial outfit that won only 51 seats in 2019 into a national force by attracting seasoned politicians from other camps.
Absence of a galvanising issue
Unlike 2023, when widespread desire for change followed nine years under coup-leader Prayuth Chan-ocha fuelled a late surge for Move Forward and its charismatic leader Pita Limjaroenrat, this election lacked a single defining issue.
The reformists had been forced to abandon their push to amend the strict lese majeste law after courts used it to dissolve Move Forward and bar its leaders from politics.
Conservative votes consolidate
Anutin successfully rallied conservative voters behind his party, preventing the fragmentation seen in 2023.
His vocal nationalism in the border dispute with Cambodia, firm backing for the military, and unwavering loyalty to King Vajiralongkorn positioned him as the clear champion of traditional Thai conservatism.
Even so, the reformists faced steep structural barriers.
Many leaders remain banned from politics, the party has been dissolved twice, and one prominent MP faces a likely six-year prison term on lese majeste charges.
Lingering legal pressures and lower turnout
After this defeat, another 44 senior members now risk political bans from the Supreme Court for endorsing Move Forward’s earlier proposal to ease lese majeste penalties.
These persistent constraints may have dampened enthusiasm among voters who supported the movement three years ago.
Turnout fell noticeably to 65 percent from 75 percent in 2023.
Anutin, by contrast, encounters few such obstacles.
The various mechanisms through which unelected institutions limit elected governments and politicians in Thailand have historically targeted those challenging the established order.
Provided he can secure agreements with smaller coalition partners, the prime minister stands a strong chance of serving a full four-year term, a feat no civilian leader has achieved in Thailand for two decades.
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