Analysts say Barisan Nasional stands to gain in Selangor if PAS and Bersatu allow their standoff over the vacant Perikatan Nasional chairman post to drag on.
Opportunity for BN to reclaim support
Ilham Centre’s Hisomuddin Bakar noted that PN made significant gains in the 2023 state polls largely because it was viewed as a fresh alternative to BN.
“Many BN supporters who were angry and disappointed channelled their protest votes to PN,” he told FMT.
PN has been without a chairman since Muhyiddin Yassin resigned effective January 1 following the Perlis political crisis.
PAS has claimed the post, but party president Abdul Hadi Awang has ruled himself out due to health reasons.
Bersatu, however, maintains that the coalition must be led by a party president.
Impact on Malay-majority seats
HIsomuddin said the prolonged dispute could create space for BN to win back support, especially in semi-urban and rural Malay-majority seats along Selangor’s northern and eastern borders.
“If PN fractures, logically its strength will no longer be the same as when it was contested under a single logo,” he said.
Voters may also start questioning the sincerity of PN’s calls for Malay unity.
He added that this could help BN reposition itself in Selangor, which it governed for 51 years until 2008.
In the 2023 Selangor state election, Pakatan Harapan won 32 of the 56 seats, BN secured two, and PN captured 22.
Limited immediate risk to PH
HIsomuddin said PH faces little immediate threat, as most of its seats are in mixed or non-Malay majority constituencies where the PAS-Bersatu row has less influence.
A source familiar with the situation told FMT that state chapters of PH, BN and PN are already discussing possible seat allocations in Selangor amid PN’s internal difficulties.
“All eyes are on Selangor because all three coalitions are looking for alliances,” the source said.
“PAS is trying to work with Umno, while Umno is also trying to see if it would be better off working with PH.”
The source added that a PH-BN arrangement would be the most viable, given their different voter bases and minimal seat overlaps.
PAS gains and PH challenges
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said PAS’s advances in Selangor reflect growing Malay voter disillusionment with PH, particularly over economic pressures.
However, he noted that the PAS-Bersatu dispute could weaken PN overall.
PH still struggles to compete with PAS in Malay-majority seats.
“To attract Malay voters, Umno remains the key conduit, but it needs strong backing and acceptance from PH supporters,” Azmi said.
He added that weak PH-BN cooperation in the last state election allowed PN to capture a substantial number of protest votes.
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