Gabungan Rakyat Sabah should set strict conditions if Barisan Nasional seeks cooperation for the 16th general election, analysts say, to avoid repeats of disruptive moves like the “Langkah Kinabalu”.
Political observers Bilcher Bala, Syahruddin Awang Ahmad and Arvin Tajari stressed that such safeguards are vital to protect Sabah’s political stability, which they view as essential for effective governance and continued development in the state.
They pointed out that BN and Umno need to moderate their expectations, given their reduced influence in Sabah since 2018, when they no longer held the dominant position they once enjoyed.
Protecting Stability Through Conditions
Bilcher Bala, from Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said Umno and BN have few realistic choices and would benefit more from aligning with GRS, which he described as stronger and more dominant than Warisan in the current landscape.
“Warisan is a direct competitor that could trigger conflicts over influence, while cooperation with GRS gives BN a chance to remain politically relevant and ensure stability in the state government,” he told FMT.
“In this context, GRS should set conditions even if Umno/BN is weakening, as a control mechanism to prevent a repeat of past conflicts and ensure long-term political stability.”
Lessons from Recent By-elections
In a recent FMT report, Kinabatangan MP Kurniawan Naim Moktar credited his party’s success in retaining the Kinabatangan parliamentary seat and Lamag state seat in the January 24 by-elections partly to support from GRS and Pakatan Harapan during the campaign.
He won by a majority of 14,214 votes over Warisan and suggested that BN’s cooperation with GRS should extend from governance to electoral arrangements ahead of GE16.
BN and GRS had been rivals in last November’s state election, despite their alliance in the federal unity government.
BN secured only six state seats in that contest, prompting warnings from observers that its seven current parliamentary seats could be vulnerable without electoral pacts.
Sabah First and Realistic Demands
Syahruddin Awang Ahmad, also from Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said any cooperation must include BN’s firm commitment to the “Sabah First” agenda and a clear undertaking to avoid future attempts to destabilise the state government, referring to the failed “Langkah Kinabalu” aimed at removing chief minister Hajiji Noor.
“Umno and BN must also rein in excessive demands, as political realities today show that they are no longer the sole power. Seat allocation formulas must reflect actual strength on the ground, not historical sentiment,” he said.
“Demands for positions in the state government must also be realistic and respect the mandate held by GRS as the leading force in the state administration.”
Arvin Tajari of Universiti Teknologi Mara noted that BN should focus on political survival in Sabah after its poor performance in the November state election.
He cautioned that the by-election wins in Kinabatangan and Lamag do not necessarily reflect renewed public support, as they were influenced by GRS’s decision not to contest and backing from its supporters.
“Therefore, negotiations over seat and position allocations must be approached with Umno/BN’s survival in mind. This needs to be carefully worked out ahead of GE16,” he said.
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