Thailand’s parliament is poised to select a new prime minister on Friday amid a turbulent political crisis, overshadowed by the abrupt departure of the nation’s most influential figure, Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled to Dubai on his private jet late Thursday.
Thaksin, a polarizing billionaire and the driving force behind the ruling Pheu Thai party, left Thailand just days before a court ruling scheduled for next week that could result in his imprisonment. His exit has left Pheu Thai, a populist powerhouse that has dominated five of the last six elections, in disarray.
The political turmoil follows the dismissal of Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as prime minister six days ago due to an ethics violation. This triggered a fierce power struggle and a bold move by former coalition partner Bhumjaithai to form a new government. Bhumjaithai, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, has gained significant traction by securing the support of the largest parliamentary bloc with a promise to hold a new election within four months.
Anutin is now the frontrunner in Friday’s vote, needing the backing of more than half of the lower house—247 votes—to become prime minister. His coalition commands 146 lawmakers, and with the opposition People’s Party pledging its 143 votes while remaining outside the government, Anutin is well-positioned to surpass the required threshold.
A Last-Ditch Effort by Pheu Thai
In a desperate bid to counter Anutin’s momentum, Pheu Thai announced on Thursday that it would nominate 77-year-old former attorney-general Chaikasem Nitisiri for the prime ministerial vote, promising an immediate snap election if elected. However, with Thaksin’s sudden departure and Pheu Thai’s internal crisis, Chaikasem’s prospects appear increasingly dim.
In an overnight post on X, Thaksin revealed he had traveled to Dubai for a medical checkup, where he spent much of his 15-year self-imposed exile to evade a jail term for abuse of power and conflicts of interest during his tenure as prime minister from 2001 to 2006. He stated he would return by Monday.
Thaksin made a high-profile return to Thailand in 2023 to serve an eight-year sentence, but on his first night in custody, he was transferred to the VIP wing of a hospital citing medical reasons. His sentence was later commuted to one year by the king, and he was released on parole after six months. The Supreme Court is set to rule on Tuesday whether his hospital stay counts toward his sentence; if not, he risks returning to prison.
Anutin’s Strategic Maneuver
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, believes Anutin has outmaneuvered Pheu Thai by forging an alliance with the opposition. “I’m quite confident that Anutin will be elected as the next prime minister,” he said. “Pheu Thai’s tactics are like the final show. Pheu Thai has completely closed the curtain.”
Pheu Thai’s earlier attempt to dissolve parliament to block Anutin’s rise proved unsuccessful, further weakening its position. The party’s dominance, long underpinned by Thaksin’s influence, now faces an uncertain future as Bhumjaithai capitalizes on the shifting political landscape.
As Thailand braces for Friday’s pivotal vote, the nation remains gripped by a power struggle that could reshape its political trajectory.
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