Pas information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari predicts Umno could claim more than 40 parliamentary seats in the 16th general election if it pursues the grand collaboration and Rumah Bangsa proposed with Perikatan Nasional.
He points out that Umno secured just 26 seats in GE15, but ties with PN could lift those numbers sharply.
Elections defy simple math, Fadhli notes, yet patterns show PN backers ready to support Barisan Nasional candidates.
Potential Seat Gains
Pursuing Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s plan, unveiled on the final day of the 2025 Umno general assembly on January 17, could add at least 10 seats, Fadhli says.
PN voters backed BN in by-elections after GE14, including Cameron Highlands and Tanjung Piai.
He flags GE15 seats won by Pakatan Harapan where Umno ran second, such as Lembah Pantai, Kuala Selangor, Sungai Buloh, Hulu Langat, Sekijang, Ledang, Sri Gading, Alor Gajah, Hang Tuah Jaya, and Johor Bahru.
Johor Bahru Example
In Johor Bahru, the PH candidate took 43,252 votes against Umno’s 27,211 and PN’s 22,075.
Umno and PN together would tally 49,286 votes, enough to beat PH.
BN Component Opportunities
Seats where Umno placed second would go to the party in talks, Fadhli adds.
BN allies like MCA in Bentong and Labis, or MIC in Sungai Siput, could also win, having trailed PH closely.
This skips other tight races where PN ran second behind PH.
Voter Dynamics
Fadhli calls his tally a basic projection, with many factors at play.
Still, it lays groundwork for coalition talks.
He doubts a PH-BN pact’s appeal, citing 2023 state polls where BN voters shunned it.
BN supporters favour PN instead.
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