The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the leading party in a state election in northeastern Germany on Sunday, according to voting projections, delivering a major setback to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s mainstream conservative party.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD was projected to secure 38.3% of the vote, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 35.4%, according to projections by public broadcaster ARD. Merz’s conservatives were at 4.9%, below the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament.
Merz described the result as “a disaster” after the exit polls were released, but indicated that he would remain as chancellor and continue with his reform agenda.
The result marked the AfD’s second first-place finish in a German state election this month. The party is also leading in national opinion polls, although the other major parties have refused to work with it.
In Berlin, the Left party was projected to lead with 25.3%, while Merz’s conservatives fell to 19%. The AfD also gained ground in the traditionally liberal capital, reaching 16.3%.
Merz vows to continue reforms
The results added pressure on Merz, following his party’s poor performance in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the AfD’s earlier victory in Saxony-Anhalt.
Merz has faced criticism over his government’s reforms and difficulties in winning over voters, while speculation had grown over whether a poor election result could prompt him to resign.
“It will now become even more difficult for the federal government to muster the courage and political support for a fundamental reform programme,” Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based DIW research institute, told Reuters.
He said that if the coalition parties maintained their respective red lines, political paralysis could become entrenched and economic weakness could persist.
Manuela Schwesig, the SPD’s state premier in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, had gained ground in the polls before Sunday’s vote after openly criticising both the AfD and the reforms of Merz’s federal government.
Schwesig also said opposition to Germany’s support for Ukraine had contributed to the AfD’s gains.
“First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military,” she said.
“And a second point: Many people also wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again.”
German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, who is also the SPD leader, signalled that he wanted a change of course, citing voters’ concerns over pension reforms.
Merz, however, reiterated his commitment to an agenda aimed at reviving growth in Europe’s largest economy.
“What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness, and patience,” he said. “I would go so far as to say that these reforms are the antidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into our society, driven by the allure of authoritarianism.”
AfD continues to gain ground
The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the formerly communist east, and Berlin followed the Sept 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD came close to winning an absolute majority.
In just over a decade, the party has developed from a fringe eurosceptic movement into Germany’s most popular party, according to national opinion polls. Its policies include tougher action to deport foreigners without the right to remain in Germany, restoring energy ties with Russia and leaving the euro.
The AfD’s performance in Saxony-Anhalt, which the party views as a first step towards winning the federal election due in 2029, has drawn attention across Europe.
The latest results have also renewed questions over Germany’s “firewall” strategy, under which the other major parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with the AfD.
Economic concerns shape the vote
Merz was elected last year on a promise to pursue reforms aimed at returning Germany’s stagnant economy to growth.
Since then, his government has faced voter dissatisfaction over pension, tax and healthcare reforms, while communication missteps have added to the criticism.
Economic concerns were also prominent during campaigning in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, with voters focusing on rising energy and housing costs.
Merz presented a consumer relief package on Friday that included tax cuts on gas and diesel.
Several voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said the cost of living was a major concern.
“Here in Schwerin, with these wages, you can hardly afford anything anymore,” voter Carlotta Heick told Reuters in the state capital.
An elderly man also criticised spending on foreign aid.
“We need our money here, for our country, for children and pensioners,” he said, asking not to be identified.
