Political analysts have dismissed Amanah president Mohamad Sabu’s optimism about winning seven seats in Saturday’s Melaka election as “wishful thinking”, saying the party’s electoral record does not justify such confidence.
Global Asia Consulting analyst Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri questioned whether Mohamad was “reading electoral intelligence or simply entertaining himself with political imagination”.
He pointed to Amanah’s performance in the 2021 Melaka election, when it won only one of the nine seats it contested. In the 2022 Johor election, the party also secured just one victory from 16 contests.
In the 15th general election (GE15), Amanah won eight of the 54 parliamentary seats it contested, compared with 11 out of 27 in 2018.
During the six state elections in 2023, it won eight of the 31 state seats it contested.
“However, the more recent results are hardly encouraging. In the 2026 Johor election, Amanah managed just one victory from 19 contests, followed by a complete wipeout in Negeri Sembilan where it lost all nine seats.
“These are not opposition allegations. They are electoral results,” Ahmad Zaharuddin told FMT.
Earlier this month, Mohamad said his confidence in the party’s prospects was based on young voters’ support for Pakatan Harapan (PH), as well as the coalition’s decision to field more young candidates in the state election.
Adly remains Amanah’s strongest prospect
Ahmad Zaharuddin said Amanah vice-president Adly Zahari remained the party’s strongest prospect in Bukit Katil, backed by his experience as a former Melaka chief minister.
However, he noted that Adly retained the Bukit Katil state seat in 2021 with a majority of just 1,057 votes and won the Alor Gajah parliamentary seat in GE15 with a majority of 890 votes.
“If Amanah’s most recognisable leader cannot claim an overwhelming electoral advantage, how can its president confidently guarantee six additional victories?” he asked.
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) analyst Syaza Shukri was also sceptical about Adly’s chances, pointing to the defeats of DAP’s Loke Siew Fook and PKR’s Aminuddin Harun in Negeri Sembilan.
She said “the tide was turning” against even popular leaders, particularly in areas where cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) was strongest.
“I don’t think voters are confident in Amanah. I still hear the same complaint, which is that voters are not sure what Amanah is about, especially vis-à-vis Malay politics,” she told FMT.
BN-PN cooperation poses challenge to PH
Fellow IIUM analyst Lau Zhe Wei also attributed Amanah’s limited prospects in Melaka to the BN-PN narrative of Malay unity, which he said had tilted the political landscape heavily against PH as a whole.
“PKR and DAP are also affected by the BN-PN cooperation. It is not that Amanah is weak – it was never strong to begin with,” he told FMT.
Lau said PH had “little to no chance of winning” as long as BN and PN continued to cooperate, even in the next general election.
He also said Amanah had failed to counter PAS’s brand of conservative Islam with its own progressive political stance, despite having originated as a PAS offshoot.
