Both PKR and its former deputy president Rafizi Ramli appear caught in a deliberate tactical standoff, with neither willing to take the first decisive step, a political analyst has observed.
Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan said Rafizi seems to be positioning himself in a way that invites expulsion from the party, yet PKR is unlikely to act on it soon.
Azmi explained that staying in PKR leaves Rafizi in a state of limbo, especially after his defeat to Nurul Izzah Anwar in the deputy presidency contest last year, which dimmed prospects of reconciling with the top leadership.
No easy exit for Rafizi
“If he’s sacked, then he can claim a higher moral ground. But I don’t think PKR will give Rafizi this luxury,” Azmi told FMT.
“I think (the party elections last year) marked the end of his journey in PKR. I don’t think there’s any way for Rafizi to reconcile.”
Azmi added that allowing Rafizi to continue criticising the PKR leadership is a strategically safer path for the party.
PKR can simply wait until the next general election (GE16) and choose not to nominate him as a candidate.
He cautioned that stronger disciplinary action against the Pandan MP at this stage could backfire.
Expelling him now would cost PKR one seat in the Dewan Rakyat, while Rafizi could remain as an independent MP or switch to another party.
Criticism continues but party holds steady
Rafizi has been openly critical of party president and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as well as the government, including comments on the shareholding controversy involving Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission chief Azam Baki.
On Sunday, Rafizi reportedly told Sin Chew Daily he intends to defend his Pandan seat in GE16 but is unlikely to do so under the PKR banner.
He also ruled out joining a “third force”, forming a new party, or teaming up with former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin.
Azmi pointed out that Rafizi would face a steep challenge defending Pandan for a third term without party machinery, as he lacks strong grassroots support.
He noted that Rafizi’s comfortable wins in Pandan in 2013 and 2022 owed much to PKR’s organisational strength.
Azmi contrasted this with Khairy, who enjoys wider popularity but still recognises the need for party backing to secure victory.
Future tests and possible outcomes
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia suggested Rafizi may “test the market” by running as an independent in GE16, possibly alongside allies such as former PKR vice-president Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.
Mazlan said Rafizi’s popularity, especially among urban voters, would likely fall short of building a significant political force.
He added there is a rising chance of disciplinary action from PKR given Rafizi’s persistent criticism of Anwar and the government.
Even so, Mazlan advised PKR to hold off and respond democratically if Rafizi becomes a direct competitor in GE16 by simply not fielding him as a candidate when the parliamentary term ends.
