Political analysts have offered differing views on whether Bersatu supporters will shift their votes in the Johor state election following PAS’ decision to back Barisan Nasional (BN) in seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Akademi Nusantara fellow Azmi Hassan said some Bersatu supporters could choose to vote for Pakatan Harapan (PH) instead of BN as a protest against PAS’ treatment of Bersatu.
He said several factors were influencing the July 11 state election, with PN contesting only 33 of Johor’s 56 state seats.
Protest vote could favour PH
Azmi noted that although Bersatu and PAS remain PN allies, PAS had announced an end to its political cooperation with Bersatu last month before directing its members and supporters to vote for BN candidates in seats not contested by PN.
‘I think, given the animosity between Bersatu and Umno, Bersatu supporters would be more inclined towards supporting PH rather than BN,’ he told FMT.
He also said some Bersatu supporters might back PH as a way of expressing dissatisfaction with PAS following the latest developments between the two parties.
Bersatu is contesting 16 of PN’s 33 seats in Johor, while PAS is fielding 11 candidates. Although both parties remain coalition partners, they are not assisting each other during the election campaign.
PAS has instructed its supporters to vote for BN in the remaining 23 seats where it is not contesting, while Bersatu has left the decision to its members and supporters without restricting them to voting only for PN candidates.
The issue drew further attention after PAS division leaders attended a BN event in Batu Pahat, where Johor BN chairman Onn Hafiz Ghazi described their presence as ‘surprised and touched’.
DAP perception may limit PH support
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, however, believes the likelihood of Bersatu supporters backing PH is low because of the perception among some Malay voters that DAP dominates the coalition.
He said Bersatu supporters who voted for PH in the 2018 general election were unlikely to repeat the move.
According to Fauzi, many voters had previously believed that Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin could balance DAP’s influence within PH, but that perception later changed.
He also argued that, apart from racial and religious considerations, PH lacked achievements that had made a significant impact at the grassroots level, while BN had remained in control of the Johor state government over the past four years.
