Barisan Nasional’s (BN) revised expectations for the Johor state election suggest the coalition is facing a more challenging contest than initially anticipated, according to political analyst Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.
The Global Asia Consulting analyst said BN’s earlier confidence of securing up to 42 seats has shifted to a more cautious projection of about 35 seats, indicating a noticeable change in the coalition’s outlook ahead of polling day.
He noted that BN, which won 40 seats in the 2022 state election, would need at least 38 seats to retain its two-thirds majority.
“The question is whether this change in narrative is a strategy to lower public expectations or a tacit admission that BN is losing momentum,” he said.
PAS support seen as a significant signal
Zaharuddin said BN’s acceptance of PAS’s support in seats not contested by Perikatan Nasional could also be interpreted as an indication that the contest is expected to be tougher than previously thought.
He said if BN were fully confident of its own strength, there would be little need to publicly emphasise its appreciation for PAS’s backing.
His remarks followed Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s statement that BN was entering the election as the underdog despite earlier expressing confidence in retaining all 40 seats won in the previous state election.
PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man has instructed party members and supporters to vote for BN candidates in constituencies where PN is not contesting.
Although BN deputy chairman Mohamad Hasan welcomed the directive, he said the coalition should not depend solely on support from other parties to secure victory.
Challenges beyond campaign machinery
Zaharuddin also pointed to criticism from former Umno Supreme Council member Puad Zarkashi, saying it reflected concerns that BN could struggle to attract younger voters by fielding familiar candidates instead of presenting fresh faces.
He said younger voters are unlikely to be persuaded by messages centred solely on political stability without clear plans on employment, wages, housing and Johor’s economic future.
He added that BN’s cooperation with DAP at the federal level could also discourage some traditional Umno supporters and conservative voters, a group in which PAS continues to hold influence.
According to Zaharuddin, Pakatan Harapan could make gains in several urban, semi-urban and mixed constituencies if it presents a more convincing economic agenda.
He said BN still possesses a strong grassroots machinery and support base, but the current political landscape has forced the coalition to adopt a more defensive campaign approach.
