Barisan Nasional (BN) is expected to retain control of the Johor state government, while DAP is likely to emerge as the largest party in the opposition bloc after the July 11 state election, according to Merdeka Center.
Speaking during a webinar organised by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Merdeka Center programme director Ibrahim Suffian said the coalition is projected to win between 40 and 42 of the 56 seats in the Johor State Legislative Assembly.
He said Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties PKR and Amanah are expected to secure only one and two seats respectively.
BN maintains electoral advantage
According to Ibrahim, Umno’s support among Malay voters in Johor has improved compared with the 15th General Election.
He estimated that Umno’s Malay vote share has increased from about 45 percent during the general election to between 55 and 60 percent at the state level.
While BN remains stronger in rural constituencies and the eastern parts of Johor, he said PH and Bersatu continue to have stronger support in the western region of the state.
BN’s position as the incumbent state government also gives it an advantage in the election campaign.
Referring to a survey conducted in May, Ibrahim said caretaker Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi received positive ratings across all major ethnic groups and age categories.
He added that almost two-thirds of Johor respondents were satisfied with the state government’s management of the economy.
According to the survey, the Johor government recorded a 79 percent approval rating, compared with 44 percent for the federal government.
However, Ibrahim stressed that favourable approval ratings do not automatically translate into votes.
He said voters may acknowledge a leader’s performance but still make their electoral decisions based on various other considerations.
PAS support offers both benefits and risks
Ibrahim said BN could also benefit from strong support from the Johor palace, divisions among its political rivals and PAS’ decision to back the coalition.
However, he cautioned that PAS’ support could also have unintended consequences, particularly among non-Malay voters.
He said some Chinese voters remain reluctant to support candidates associated with PAS, even if they are contesting under BN.
Although some non-Malay voters have expressed dissatisfaction with both the BN-led state government and PH over unmet expectations and reform promises, PAS’ involvement could further discourage support for MCA candidates.
Turnout and youth vote remain key factors
Ibrahim expects voter turnout to be lower than during the general election, estimating an overall turnout of between 60 and 65 percent.
He projected Malay voter turnout at between 70 and 75 percent, while Chinese voter turnout could range between 55 and 60 percent.
He noted that lower turnout among Chinese voters could affect PH’s performance.
Young voters, who make up about 40 percent of Johor’s electorate, are generally less influenced by identity politics or traditional party loyalties, Ibrahim said.
Instead, they are more concerned about the cost of living, economic opportunities and housing issues.
Responding to a question on former Umno Supreme Council member Puad Zarkashi’s allegation that Umno was being influenced by the Johor palace, Ibrahim said the issue could sway some younger Malay voters towards Bersatu or PAS.
He added that many younger voters who discussed the issue on social media appeared less receptive to royal involvement in politics and were more likely to cast protest votes against those perceived to be in positions of power.
