Beyond Perikatan Nasional (PN), Barisan Nasional (BN) is likely to explore other political alliances in an effort to secure greater electoral gains in future elections, an analyst says.
There are already indications that a new political alignment could emerge as early as the start of campaigning for the Melaka election. The Melaka state assembly must seek a fresh mandate by February next year.
For Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, the clearest indication of a possible shift in BN’s priorities was its announcement that it was open to discussions with other political groups.
This comes despite BN’s successful electoral outings in Johor and Negeri Sembilan through its cooperation with PN.
Seat allocation may shape BN’s next move
Immediately after BN’s victory in Negeri Sembilan, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said cooperation with PN would continue.
However, shortly afterwards, he said BN would defend all 21 seats it won in the previous Melaka state election and was open to working with other political groups.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang subsequently said preliminary talks between BN and PN were still ‘ongoing’.
Azmi said BN’s change in position could be linked to competing demands over seat allocations.
Despite PAS’ limited presence in Melaka, Azmi predicted that the party could still seek more than seven seats, based on the fact that it contested eight seats in the 2021 state election.
PN contested all 28 seats in 2021 but won only two, both through Bersatu, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) won the remaining five. At the time, Bersatu and PAS were still working together under PN before their relationship later broke down.
However, PN could point to its performance in the last general election, when it won three of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats, while BN failed to win any. Those three parliamentary constituencies contain 14 state seats.
BN-PH cooperation also possible
Azmi said a BN-PH cooperation in Melaka could now appear more attractive.
‘With BN’s backing, PH may even win more than the five it now has,’ he told FMT.
BN has historically been dominant in Melaka, although it briefly lost control of the state after PH won 15 of the 28 seats in the 2018 election, leaving BN with 13 seats.
BN regained control of the state in the 2021 polls.
Ironically, both PAS and PKR, the anchor parties of their respective coalitions, failed to win any seats in the 2021 election.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said the prevailing political situation in Melaka could have prompted BN to consider a different strategy.
He said BN might have concluded that cooperating with PN, as it had done in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, might not be suitable in Melaka.
He added that PN might also want to contest more rural seats, leading Umno to conclude that such cooperation was unnecessary.
Zahid recently said Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh had been given the authority to negotiate a deal with any party.
BN-PN ties may continue elsewhere
Azmi cautioned against drawing conclusions about the future of the BN-PN alliance, saying difficulties in reaching a seat-sharing arrangement in Melaka did not necessarily mean BN would sever ties with PN altogether.
‘PN could still be a valuable electoral partner in states such as Perak and Pahang,’ he said.
In the 2022 state election, PN won 26 of Perak’s 59 seats and 17 of Pahang’s 42 seats. BN won nine seats in Perak and 17 in Pahang.
Despite PN’s larger seat haul, both states are currently led by PH and BN under their unity government arrangement.
Mazlan also did not rule out the possibility of BN and PN continuing their cooperation in Melaka. However, he said any agreement would depend on the electoral benefits each side expected.
‘I think BN might work with PN in Melaka. If that formula works, it will continue in future elections, but it also depends on factors such as demographics and suitability,’ he said.
‘BN might work with other coalitions as well. This is the political reality of today, where cross-party collaboration will become the norm,’ Mazlan added.
