Barisan Nasional’s (BN) best chance of unseating DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook in Chennah depends on winning the support of Perikatan Nasional (PN) voters rather than making significant gains among Chinese voters, according to a political analyst.
International Islamic University Malaysia analyst Lau Zhe Wei said the Johor election demonstrated that MCA continues to face challenges in securing broad support from Chinese voters, making even a modest swing within that electorate a positive outcome.
He said the key factor for BN was whether MCA could attract votes that had previously gone to PN.
“If MCA succeeds in shifting PN votes, it will easily win the seat,” he said.
Negeri Sembilan differs from Johor
Lau said the electoral landscape in Negeri Sembilan differs from Johor because DAP’s Chinese-majority constituencies in the state are more firmly established.
He said Johor has many mixed constituencies where DAP won with relatively smaller majorities, while DAP’s seats in Negeri Sembilan are more secure due to the higher proportion of Chinese voters.
According to Lau, DAP would still be able to retain the seat even if Chinese support fell to 70%, given the constituency’s voter composition.
His comments came after BN’s Chennah candidate, Siow Kong Choon, said Chinese voters were no longer a “fixed deposit” for DAP and were increasingly voting based on candidates and performance rather than sentiment.
Chinese voting patterns continue to evolve
Chennah will see a straight fight between Siow and Loke, who has represented the constituency since 2013 and is seeking a fourth consecutive term.
Loke won the seat with a majority of about 2,200 votes in the 2023 Negeri Sembilan state election.
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman political analyst Chin Yee Mun said Chinese voters have never been a “fixed deposit” for any political party, as their support changes according to the political climate.
He said a major shift occurred in 2008 when Chinese voters moved their support from BN to DAP and its allies.
According to Chin, after three general elections, there are now signs of another shift, as reflected in the recent elections in Sabah and Johor.
