Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional may be able to remain together despite their political differences if both coalitions believe an alliance offers greater gains than competing against each other, according to a political analyst.
Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said history had shown that alliances formed around short-term interests could withstand pressure, but cracks would emerge when the interests of the parties involved no longer aligned.
He said the next general election would be the real test for the BN-PN “marriage of necessity”.
A common opponent could keep the two former rivals together, he said, but a struggle for power could eventually drive them apart.
“Then a divorce is not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when’,” he said.
Alliance driven by necessity
Zaharuddin was commenting on former DAP leader Ronnie Liu’s prediction that the BN-PN pact would not last until the next general election.
Liu had described the informal BN-PN alliance during the recent Negeri Sembilan polls as a tactical arrangement and a temporary marriage of convenience.
He said the two coalitions would eventually split as both believed they were strong enough to compete for more seats, particularly because their key component parties, Umno and PAS, largely compete for the same voter base.
Liu also said the first signs of trouble could already be seen in the difficult seat negotiations for the Melaka polls.
However, Zaharuddin said BN and PN could remain together “despite their imperfect compatibility” if they believed that “joining forces would be more beneficial than going against each other”.
“Politics is the art of survival,” he told FMT.
Seat negotiations could test cooperation
Zaharuddin said Liu’s remarks raised a fundamental question over whether the alliance was based on political compatibility or simply a mathematical advantage.
“Trouble is, an election boils down to one sensitive matter: seats,” he said.
He said BN and PN had come together out of necessity rather than because they shared deep political beliefs.
As they negotiate which seats each coalition should contest, they will also have to determine which party will give way in a particular constituency and who will lead the campaign, among other matters.
“When two parties lay claim to a constituency, treating it as their ‘right’, cooperation can turn into an internal contest,” he said.
Cooperation likely to continue for now
Another analyst, Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia, said the informal alliance was bound to face its own challenges, including disputes.
She said similar problems could also arise if BN and PN eventually formed the next federal government.
“However, until it reaches that level, they will work hard to maintain the cooperation as they realise the benefits of such an alliance,” she said.
