Claims that Barisan Nasional (BN) enjoyed a significant surge in support from younger voters in the Johor state election should be viewed with caution, as the trend was largely driven by the ethnic composition of younger age groups rather than age itself, according to DAP’s Ong Kian Ming.
The former Bangi MP said estimates showed BN maintained consistently strong backing among Malay voters who cast their ballots across all age groups, with support ranging from 81.4% to 86.8%.
“There is no clear indication that younger Malay voters were substantially more supportive of BN than older Malay voters,” he said.
Apparent age effect reflects ethnic demographics
Ong explained that the higher level of support for BN among younger voters in the overall figures could largely be attributed to the demographic makeup of each age group.
He said younger cohorts comprised a larger proportion of Malay voters, while older cohorts included a higher proportion of Chinese voters.
“In other words, part of what appears to be an age effect is actually an ethnic-composition effect,” he said.
PN support fell across all Malay age groups
Ong also noted that Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) support declined across every Malay age group in the Johor election, while BN secured more than 80% support among Malay voters in every age band.
He said the strongest shift towards BN came from younger Malay voters, who had previously been PN’s strongest support base.
According to Ong, this suggests that the youth-leaning support enjoyed by PN in the 2022 election did not represent a lasting generational realignment.
“By 2026, Malay voting behaviour had become comparatively flat across age groups,” he said.
In the July 11 Johor polls, BN won 48 of the 56 seats it contested. Pakatan Harapan (PH) was reduced to eight seats from the 12 it won in 2022, while PN failed to win any of the 33 seats it contested.
