As Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares to seek a fourth term in office, attention is increasingly focused on Cai Qi, one of his closest allies, whose expanding responsibilities highlight his growing influence within China’s leadership.
Cai, a long-time associate of Xi, has assumed several key positions in recent years, including overseeing the Communist Party’s General Office, national security affairs and, most recently, serving as president of the Central Party School, the institution responsible for training rising party officials.
His latest appointments suggest he is expected to play a central role in evaluating future senior leaders while ensuring they meet Xi’s standards of discipline, loyalty and ideological commitment ahead of the next Communist Party congress.
Trusted figure in Xi’s inner circle
Cai, 70, first worked alongside Xi during the latter’s years as a local official in eastern China. Over time, he has become one of Xi’s most trusted advisers and an important figure in implementing the president’s political agenda.
Analysts say Cai’s leadership of the Central Party School could give him significant influence in assessing potential candidates for senior leadership positions as China prepares for a major generational transition.
Xi is widely expected to secure another five-year term at the next Communist Party congress, extending his rule to at least two decades.
From reform-minded official to key enforcer
Earlier in his career, Cai built a reputation as an approachable and open-minded official while serving in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. He maintained an active presence on social media, responded to public concerns and once described openness as beneficial for political parties.
After being transferred to Beijing, however, Cai adopted a markedly different role. He closed his social media account and became closely associated with implementing Xi’s priorities on governance, security and political discipline.
He helped establish the Central National Security Commission in 2014 before later serving as Beijing’s mayor and party secretary, where he led campaigns aimed at reshaping the capital in line with government policies.
One of the most controversial initiatives came in 2017, when Beijing authorities carried out large-scale expulsions of migrant workers under a housing safety campaign. Cai defended strict enforcement measures, although the operation drew widespread criticism and calls for his resignation.
Key role in future leadership
In 2022, Cai was promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s highest decision-making body. He also became director of the Communist Party’s General Office and head of its Secretariat, placing him in charge of coordinating the work, meetings, security and daily operations of the country’s top leadership.
Official reports also indicate that he oversees cybersecurity policy and serves as a deputy head of the Central National Security Commission.
Analysts believe Cai’s growing responsibilities could allow him to help identify and assess officials who will lead China’s future priorities, including technological development and Beijing’s long-term policy towards Taiwan.
While Xi removed presidential term limits in 2018, analysts do not expect him to name a successor in the near future. However, a significant number of senior Communist Party officials are expected to retire at the next party congress under the party’s age convention, creating the need for a new generation of leaders.
Analysts also note that Xi has become increasingly cautious in selecting senior officials following corruption investigations and the removal of several military leaders whom he had previously promoted.
Some observers believe that even if Cai steps down from certain positions because of his age, he could remain president of the Central Party School, allowing him to continue identifying and evaluating future officials on Xi’s behalf.
