Johor PAS is banking on voter backlash against the Umno-DAP alliance for the 2027 state polls. But can the “green wave” really penetrate the southern multi-ethnic stronghold? Analysts say it’s an uphill battle. #JohorElection #MalaysiaPolitics #PAS #Umno #DAP #PN #BN
The Johor chapter of PAS has expressed confidence in capitalising on what it describes as Umno’s contradictory stance regarding DAP, suggesting that this perceived inconsistency will enhance the Islamic party’s prospects in the next state election.
Despite currently holding only the Maharani seat through Abdul Aziz Talib, Johor PAS deputy commissioner Mazri Yahya believes that voter sentiment for the 16th state election, scheduled by mid-2027, will shift in favour of his party.
Mazri pointed out that Umno campaigned under the “No Anwar, No DAP” slogan during the 2022 state polls but ultimately chose to collaborate with DAP following the general election.
Perceived inconsistencies and grassroots machinery
Voters can clearly see these inconsistencies, Mazri told FMT, adding that PAS and Perikatan Nasional are certain the electorate will not be misled again.
He further noted that the party relies on its strong machinery to not only retain the Maharani seat but also to capture additional constituencies across the state.
However, political analysts suggest that these ambitions may be overly optimistic given the unique demographic landscape of Johor compared to northern states.
Demographic hurdles and the multi-ethnic factor
Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University of Malaysia stated that PAS is unlikely to achieve significant success if Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan maintain their current cooperation.
He explained that by working together, the two coalitions can attract a broader spectrum of voters through strategic ideological differences, leaving PAS with limited opportunities to make an impact.
Johor has historically been a Barisan Nasional stronghold with a diverse voter base, unlike the Malay-majority constituencies in Kedah and Perlis where PAS has traditionally seen success.
Lau added that the “green wave” of support seen in previous general elections remains largely confined to the northern Malay belt and is unlikely to spread south to Johor, Melaka, or Negeri Sembilan due to their multi-ethnic compositions.
Limitations in mixed constituencies
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara echoed these sentiments, suggesting that even PAS may internally recognise that its goals in Johor are highly ambitious.
He noted that PAS lacks a strong foundation in the state and is unlikely to win more seats even if Barisan Nasional is weakened, primarily due to limited support within Johor’s multi-ethnic voter base.
According to Azmi, the most realistic outcome for PAS would be to hold its current seat and perhaps add one more to its tally.
He highlighted that PAS would particularly struggle in mixed constituencies where Amanah, a more moderate component of Pakatan Harapan, traditionally maintains strong traction among Malay-Muslim voters.
In the previous Johor state election, Barisan Nasional secured a dominant 40 out of 56 seats, while Pakatan Harapan won 12, Perikatan Nasional took three, and Muda secured one.
