olitical analysts have expressed skepticism about the potential impact of Jeffrey Kitingan’s proposed Gerakan Sabah Baharu alliance, predicting that the new state-centric coalition may struggle to make a significant mark in Sabah’s upcoming state election.
A Crowded Political Landscape
James Chin, a political analyst from the University of Tasmania, described Sabah’s political arena as already saturated, with numerous parties and coalitions competing for seats.
The recent exit of Kitingan’s Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) from the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition has further intensified this competition. “Another Sabah nationalistic coalition isn’t going to make much of a difference,” Chin told FMT.
Despite these challenges, Chin acknowledged Kitingan’s strong personal brand as a prominent advocate for state nationalism. “Everyone in Sabah knows him as a staunch state nationalist. That’s an advantage, as those joining his alliance can leverage his branding,” he said.
Challenges to Electoral Success
Bilcher Bala, a lecturer at Universiti Malaysia Sabah, highlighted several hurdles facing Kitingan’s new alliance. STAR’s last-minute withdrawal from GRS, led by caretaker Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, leaves the party with limited time to build alliances and strengthen its election machinery.
The decision by five senior STAR assemblymen to remain with GRS has further weakened the party’s grassroots support.
“Without other parties joining, Gerakan Sabah Baharu risks being just a platform for STAR, which lacks the influence and competitiveness needed in Sabah’s crowded political scene,” Bala said.
He noted that voters tend to favor established political brands over untested coalitions. “Unless a major party joins or there’s a significant shift in strategic communications, I expect the alliance to be sidelined and struggle to win seats,” he added.
Kitingan’s Vision for Sabah
Following STAR’s exit from GRS, Kitingan, the Tambunan assemblyman, announced plans to form Gerakan Sabah Baharu, a coalition of local parties centered on the “Sabah for Sabahans” vision.
He emphasized that the alliance would avoid working with West Malaysian parties during the election but would be open to cooperating with the federal government once a state administration is formed.
Post-Election Realities
Chin dismissed the likelihood of STAR forming pre-election pacts with major parties like Warisan or Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), both of which are contesting independently. Instead, he predicted that meaningful negotiations would occur only after the election results are clear.
“The real discussions will happen post-election, once parties know how many seats they’ve secured. There’s no point negotiating a coalition if you can’t win seats,” he said.
