Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won an unprecedented fourth term on Sunday, according to the country’s electoral court, defying opinion polls and a broader trend of anti-incumbent sentiment to halt a wave of right-wing election victories across Latin America.
Lula, a prominent figure on the global left and a dominant force in Brazilian politics this century, defeated Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The senator had finished first in the election’s first round and sought to revive his father’s far-right movement.
Lula’s re-election had appeared uncertain at times as voters grew dissatisfied with him and his Workers’ Party following years of corruption scandals and rising prices. Social changes also raised questions about whether the former metalworker and union leader remained in touch with an increasingly app-based economy and its growing informal workforce.
The victory marked another comeback in Lula’s long political career. The 80-year-old was jailed from 2018 to 2019 on corruption charges that were later overturned, paving the way for his victory over Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.
“He is a statesman, a giant,” leftist federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who was with Lula in Sao Paulo during the vote count, told Reuters.
An unlikely path to victory
Pollsters attributed Lula’s victory to better-than-expected voter turnout. Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said voters had opted for Lula’s familiar approach rather than Bolsonaro’s promise of something new.
“People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights,” he said.
During the campaign, Lula highlighted his record of reducing poverty and inequality. Unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation also reached record lows during his third term, according to the source report.
He warned that Bolsonaro would cut welfare spending, reverse social progress and surrender Brazil’s sovereignty to US President Donald Trump. The US State Department had led a campaign to return the Bolsonaros to power.
Lula’s victory deprives Trump of a potential ally in Brazil, which could have strengthened a growing bloc of right-wing Latin American governments aligned with Washington’s agenda on security and migration.
Former Lula foreign minister Celso Amorim told Reuters that the president would play an important role in balancing political forces in the region.
“Lula is that balance,” he said.
Comeback king faces conservative Congress
Lula becomes the first candidate since Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s to win the presidency after finishing second in the first round.
Having served as president from 2003 to 2011, he campaigned on a combination of pragmatism and populism that has defined his five decades in national politics. His campaign featured a series of reforms aimed at improving the lives of workers and poorer Brazilians.
Late-campaign pledges included free nationwide public transport at weekends, a proposal that must be formally submitted to Congress, and a 15% increase in his signature welfare programme, which is already being implemented.
Lula also championed a constitutional amendment that became Brazil’s biggest labour reform in decades and was passed with broad support in Congress.
However, his fourth term could prove his most difficult yet, with Brazil having elected its most conservative Congress since the country returned to democracy in the 1980s.
Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) and its allies could together control more than 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, giving them comfortable majorities in both chambers.
“He is likely to be a lame duck from the start,” Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, said.
Stuenkel said the incoming legislature would likely accelerate the trend of presidents ceding power to Congress. He predicted that Lula would face diminishing influence over Supreme Court nominations, difficult coalition negotiations and even the threat of impeachment.
Economic headwinds loom over fourth term
Lula also faces economic challenges, with his government forecasting growth of just 2.3% next year. Fiscal concerns have intensified amid high interest rates and public debt exceeding 82% of gross domestic product, its highest level since the pandemic.
Critics blame government spending for the rise in debt, although interest costs have accounted for most of the increase.
Goldman Sachs expects Lula to make only modest progress in containing spending during his fourth term as he remains committed to a state-led growth model.
Rising household debt is another concern for economists. In response, Lula introduced a provisional ban on online betting and unveiled a new debt relief programme during the campaign.
Experts expect the incoming right-wing Congress to push structural reforms favouring businesses. However, spending cuts arising from such measures could trigger social unrest.
