The Melaka state election will test whether cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) is driven by a broader political goal or can survive only when neither side’s individual seat interests are affected.
Sekretariat Tanahair secretary-general Armin Baniaz Pahamin said developments in Johor and Negeri Sembilan had heightened public interest in whether the two coalitions could turn their cooperation into an arrangement that was structured, fair and lasting.
He said BN had reason to be confident in Melaka, given Umno’s strong grassroots organisation in the state and the coalition’s landslide victory in the previous state election, which reinforced its position as the dominant force there.
However, he said past electoral strength should not be used to close the door on negotiations, as voting patterns had changed, public sentiment continued to shift and three-cornered contests could produce unexpected outcomes.
Seat negotiations must reflect local strength
“PN should not enter negotiations demanding an equal seat split without taking into account the reality of local strength on the ground.
“Fairness in negotiations does not mean each side must receive the same number of seats. Fairness instead means each party is given reasonable space based on its ground machinery, track record of support, candidate suitability and probability of winning,” he said in a statement.
Armin said possible formulas could include 20 seats for BN and eight for PN, or 21 seats for BN and seven for PN, based on winnability.
However, he stressed that these figures should not be treated as fixed or predetermined, as the final distribution should take into account the latest electoral data, the strength of each party’s machinery, candidate acceptance and the likelihood of victory in each constituency.
On PN, he said the coalition first needed to finalise who would be mandated to represent it in negotiations and determine which component parties would contest the election.
“This step is important so that seat allocation is not overshadowed by internal uncertainty within the coalition.
“In return, if PN is prepared to compromise in Melaka, that willingness should be reciprocated by BN in states where PAS and PN hold a stronger position.
“The same principle should also apply to seat distribution, which must reflect the actual strength of each party according to local realities, rather than a uniform formula applied across all states,” he said.
BN and PN face strategic choices
Armin said Umno and BN faced two clear choices: contesting alone to prove they could still control Melaka without PN’s support, or recognising that a victory in one state was only part of a broader journey towards the 16th general election (GE16).
He said the first option might provide satisfaction to the party, but the second could create an alliance with the potential to change the federal government.
“PN also needs to choose between measuring its own strength and building a joint victory, because contesting more seats might project boldness, but political courage is not measured by the number of candidates fielded.
“It is measured by the ability to convert support into victory, form a government and implement policy.
“There is no benefit in contesting in many areas if vote-splitting ultimately hands victory to the opposing side,” he said.
Three-cornered contests could split Malay votes
Armin said failure in BN-PN negotiations would likely result in three-cornered contests in many constituencies.
Under such circumstances, he said, the Malay vote could be split, while party machinery and resources would be used against one another.
He said attention could also shift away from public issues, administrative performance and the state’s direction, towards infighting between parties that otherwise had much in common.
