Whether PAS will be prepared to concede more seats to Umno, as it did in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, is likely to become a crucial issue if Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) cooperate in the upcoming Melaka state election, according to an analyst.
Ilham Centre research chief Yusri Ibrahim said cooperation between BN and PN in Johor and Negeri Sembilan was relatively straightforward because Umno was the dominant party, while PAS was willing to play a supporting role by allowing Umno to contest a larger number of seats.
Melaka presents a different political landscape
Yusri said the situation in Melaka is significantly different, with both Umno and PAS having reasons to claim they hold the stronger political position.
He noted that Umno led BN to a landslide victory in the 2021 Melaka state election, securing a majority of seats and forming the state government.
However, he said the political landscape shifted after the 15th General Election in November 2022, when BN failed to win any of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats. PN captured three seats, with PAS winning Tangga Batu and Jasin, while Bersatu secured Masjid Tanah.
According to Yusri, if parliamentary votes are broken down by state constituencies, PN would have led BN by 10 seats to four.
“This means that, in the context of Melaka and based on the most recent election, PN is stronger than BN, and PAS is stronger than Umno,” he said in a Facebook post.
Seat negotiations expected to be key challenge
Yusri said the changing political landscape raises important questions over future seat negotiations between the two coalitions.
“Will PAS continue to be as generous in giving up seats as it was in Johor and Negeri Sembilan?
“At the same time, will Umno be willing to concede more seats to PAS when it is the dominant party leading the Melaka government?” he said.
He added that the Melaka state election would serve as an early test of the working relationship between BN and PN ahead of future electoral contests.
Leaders signal openness to cooperation
Yesterday, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said BN and PN could reach a different form of understanding for the Melaka election following their convincing victory in the Negeri Sembilan polls last Saturday.
He noted that while BN controls 20 seats in the 28-member Melaka state assembly, the Umno-led coalition does not hold any of the state’s parliamentary seats.
On Sunday, Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh said the coalition remained open to cooperating with any party under a BN Plus formula for the state election. However, he stressed that discussions would not automatically result in an agreement, as any arrangement would depend on each party’s electoral strength.
PAS had previously announced its intention to contest 16 of Melaka’s 28 state seats, including Tanjung Bidara, which is currently represented by Rauf.
