Seven constituencies are shaping up to be closely contested in the 16th Melaka state election, with the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) alliance and the Pakatan Harapan-Bersatu pact vying for control.
In the 2021 polls, 13 seats were decided by narrow margins. This time, however, BN-PN cooperation is widely expected to consolidate Malay votes, potentially turning slim victories into landslides in several constituencies.
The spotlight is likely to fall on seats with a more evenly mixed racial composition, particularly those previously won by PH, BN or PN.
Three political analysts — Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, James Chin of the University of Tasmania and Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia — shared their predictions with FMT.
Bukit Katil
Bukit Katil is emerging as one of the most closely watched constituencies in the election.
Former chief minister Adly Zahari faces three opponents as he seeks a third term as the assemblyman.
The Amanah vice-president won the seat in 2021 with a majority of just 1,057 votes. This time, the BN-PN alliance could have a significant influence on the outcome, with Malays making up 64.8% of the electorate.
Adly, who is now deputy defence minister, also faces the prospect of vote-splitting following Bersama’s decision to field a candidate. This could prove crucial if the contest is decided by a narrow margin.
A defeat would deal a major blow to PH in Melaka.
Azmi predicts a PH victory, while Chin and Syaza favour PN.
Ayer Keroh and Paya Rumput
Ayer Keroh has the most balanced racial composition among the constituencies discussed, with Chinese making up 46% of voters and Malays 44%.
DAP has held the seat since 2008. Its two-term assemblyman, Kerk Chee Yee, secured a convincing 5,624-vote majority in the 2021 election.
The growing proportion of Malay voters has made the electorate more evenly balanced. A consolidation of Malay votes under BN-PN could put the DAP stronghold at risk.
However, Kerk remains popular among constituents and is regarded as one of Melaka’s key young leaders at the age of 34.
Bersatu’s presence could split the Malay vote if the contest tightens, potentially benefiting PH. Bersama, meanwhile, could draw votes from PH supporters.
All three analysts predict PH will retain Ayer Keroh.
Paya Rumput, traditionally a BN stronghold, was won by PH in 2018 before returning to BN in 2021.
PH is fielding its federal territories chief Azman Abidin, who is also political secretary to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Azman has highlighted his links to Putrajaya, saying they could help strengthen cooperation between the federal and Melaka governments.
BN has made way for PN, which is fielding Rafie Ahmad. Malays account for 62% of voters in the constituency.
The incumbent assemblyman, Rais Yasin, who won by a majority of just 629 votes in 2021, is contesting in Sungai Udang this time.
All three analysts predict a PN victory in Paya Rumput.
Kesidang and Pengkalan Batu
Kesidang is another DAP stronghold, having been held by the party since 2008.
Chinese voters make up 54% of the electorate, while Malays account for 38.5%.
Incumbent Allex Seah won by a landslide majority of 10,237 votes in 2021.
However, a lower Chinese voter turnout and the consolidation of Malay votes could pose a challenge to DAP. Similar circumstances had contributed to the party losing several key strongholds in Negeri Sembilan and Johor.
Even so, Seah’s large majority in the previous election may be difficult for PN candidate Albert Kok of Wawasan to overcome, despite his hopes of riding a Malay swing.
The three analysts unanimously predict a PH victory.
In Pengkalan Batu, BN’s decision to field Hang Tuah Jaya Wanita Umno deputy division chief Siti Aisyah Mahmood instead of incumbent Kalsom Noordin initially caused some friction, but the coalition has since closed ranks.
Kalsom, the state Wanita Umno chief, previously served as a state executive councillor.
Malays make up 64% of the electorate, followed by Chinese voters at 27% and Indians at 5%. Four candidates are contesting the seat.
DAP has won the constituency several times when it was known as Bachang, but lost it to Umno in 2021 by just 131 votes in a five-cornered contest.
Bersatu is also contesting the seat against PH. Former assemblyman Norhizam Hassan Baktee, popularly known as ‘YB Hulk’ for his fiery temper, could influence the outcome and tip the balance against DAP candidate Jason Tze-Xi Nathan.
All three analysts predict a BN victory.
Bemban and Kelebang
Bemban has changed hands several times. MCA lost the seat to DAP in 2018, before DAP was defeated by Bersatu in the 2021 election.
Incumbent assemblyman Yadzil Yaakub, who is now with Wawasan, is contesting under the PN banner this time.
Yadzil, the former state opposition leader, won by just 328 votes in 2021. Malays account for 62% of voters, while Chinese and Indian voters make up 19.7% and 17% respectively.
Umno’s decision to make way for Yadzil reportedly left some grassroots members unhappy, given that many Wawasan leaders are former Umno members.
Nevertheless, Yadzil is expected to have an advantage over his rivals from Bersatu and Bersama, as well as an independent candidate.
All three analysts predict PN will win Bemban.
In Kelebang, PH and Bersatu are set to face off once again.
MCA vice-president Lim Ban Hong is seeking a third term as assemblyman. However, he will also face candidates from Bersatu and Bersama.
Bersatu is fielding former deputy Senate president Ali Mohamad, while PKR has nominated young candidate Farzana Hayani Nasir. Bersama’s Young Jie Yu is also contesting.
Malays make up 68.5% of the electorate, followed by Chinese voters at 27%.
Lim will be hoping to benefit from the consolidation of Malay votes to increase his majority, having won by 876 votes in 2021.
All three analysts predict a BN victory.
