Political analyst Azmi Hassan has disagreed with a former MP’s call for political parties to contest the Nov 14 Melaka state election independently to gauge their strength ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).
Azmi, of Akademi Nusantara, said the state election, which involves 28 seats, would not provide an accurate measure of parties’ support at the national level.
He added that low voter turnout would make the results even less relevant to preparations for GE16.
“Therefore, using Melaka as a yardstick (for GE16) would be unrealistic,” he told FMT.
Parties face uncertainty over alliances
On Wednesday, former Umno leader Puad Zarkashi said major political players appeared to be struggling to reach agreement on alliances for the Melaka election.
He argued that contesting independently would allow parties to assess their actual strength and enter negotiations for GE16 with a more humble and realistic outlook.
Barisan Nasional (BN) had previously indicated its intention to cooperate with Perikatan Nasional (PN) in Melaka, following their alliance’s convincing victory in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls.
However, the Umno-led coalition subsequently opened the door to negotiations with Pakatan Harapan (PH) while delaying confirmation of an alliance with the PAS-led PN.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang nevertheless claimed that PAS and BN had agreed in principle to work together in Melaka.
PH, meanwhile, has been linked to speculation about a possible pact with Bersatu, which has fallen out of favour within PN but remains part of the opposition coalition.
Alliances remain important amid vote-splitting concerns
Azmi said the political landscape following the 2022 general election had made alliances necessary, as no single party secured enough seats to form the federal government.
“No party would want to take the risk of going solo (and splitting votes) if an opportunity for cooperation exists,” said Lau Zhe Wei of International Islamic University Malaysia.
Lau said contesting independently in Melaka would not resolve deadlocks in seat negotiations.
He added that multi-cornered contests would not necessarily reflect voters’ preferences accurately under Malaysia’s first-past-the-post electoral system, as vote-splitting could allow a candidate to win without securing majority support among constituents.
