With fewer than 10 days to polling day, analysts say Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu may struggle to rebuild trust among their supporters and secure a significant transfer of votes in the Nov 14 Melaka state election.
Universiti Malaya’s Tawfik Yaakub said vote transfer between the two sides would not be easy given their history of hostility, particularly following the 2020 Sheraton Move, which led to the collapse of the PH government.
He said staunch Bersatu supporters might find it difficult to accept DAP candidates, who have long been targets of their criticism, while PH supporters continued to harbour political resentment towards Bersatu, led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin.
“Political trust that has been damaged over several years cannot be restored simply through an understanding between leaders during a short campaign period,” he told FMT.
Past political tensions pose challenge to cooperation
Tawfik said moderate and pragmatic voters might be willing to set aside their differences if preventing Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) from winning was seen as a more important objective.
However, he said any transfer of votes between PH and Bersatu was unlikely to be substantial.
PH election director Amirudin Shari had previously said an agreement had been reached with Bersatu for the Melaka polls.
Under the agreement, PH is contesting 24 seats while Bersatu is vying for seven. The two parties will face each other in three constituencies: Kelebang, Ayer Keroh and Pengkalan Batu.
In a podcast on Wednesday, Melaka PH chairman Adly Zahari said the coalition would not stop its supporters from voting for Bersatu candidates in constituencies where PH was not contesting.
However, Adly said no specific directive had been issued as PH was focused on winning the 24 seats it is contesting. He also stressed that BN and PN remained its main rivals.
The Amanah vice-president acknowledged the confidence and supply agreement signed by six Bersatu MPs, including Muhyiddin, on Oct 29, but said it did not guarantee political cooperation between the two sides.
Another analyst sees potential for vote transfer
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali was more optimistic about the possibility of vote transfer, although he said the 14-day campaign period would not be enough to bridge the gap between supporters.
“Bersatu is no longer PH’s enemy, and PH is no longer Bersatu’s enemy. PH’s enemies are BN and PN, and the same goes for Bersatu. Both have a common objective,” he said.
He estimated that between 50% and 60% of supporters might be willing to vote for candidates from the other side in constituencies where their preferred party was not contesting.
Mazlan said the absence of an official announcement on cooperation would not necessarily prevent vote transfer, as the parties’ election machinery could communicate political signals and instructions directly to supporters without having to share campaign platforms.
He cited the example of PAS, which had previously instructed its supporters to vote for Umno in Johor constituencies where PAS was not contesting.
“If PAS can do that, why can’t Bersatu and PH?” he said.
