Political analysts expect the controversy surrounding Najib Razak’s house arrest to galvanise supporters on both sides of the political divide, potentially increasing overall voter turnout in Saturday’s Melaka election.
Akademi Nusantara analyst Azmi Hassan and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia analyst Mazlan Ali told FMT that Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters unhappy with the decision to allow Najib to serve the remainder of his prison sentence under house arrest could be motivated to turn out in large numbers.
On the other hand, supporters sympathetic towards Najib could also be encouraged to vote in favour of the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) pact, Azmi said.
On Nov 9, Melaka PH chairman Adly Zahari said he did not expect the controversy surrounding Najib’s house arrest and the payment of his RM50 million fine to cost the coalition any votes.
He said the issue had attracted national attention but was unlikely to discourage PH supporters from voting.
Azmi said the government’s decision to make its position on the house arrest process known had reassured PH supporters that the coalition remained true to its principles.
“PH supporters will also be more motivated to send a message that they disagree with the house arrest process. Therefore, this issue will not weaken support for PH in Melaka,” he said.
Najib controversy could mobilise BN-PN supporters
Azmi said more BN and PN supporters might also turn out to vote because they believed Najib had been victimised by the attorney-general, whom they regarded as acting on the federal government’s instructions.
He added that the controversy had diverted voters’ attention from local concerns such as the cost of living and development.
This was significant because national issues, which typically have less influence on state elections, could now become a major factor in mobilising voters, he said.
Voters remain divided over house arrest issue
Mazlan said traditional Umno voters, particularly Malays who remembered the contributions of the former prime minister, were also likely to turn out to show their support for him.
In contrast, urban and semi-urban voters, particularly young people, the middle class and non-Malays, were more likely to view Najib’s house arrest as an unwarranted privilege that raised questions about political integrity and principles, he said.
Educated and non-Malay voters, particularly PH supporters, were unlikely to be swayed by the narrative that Najib had been victimised or needed to be defended, he added.
Mazlan also expected the controversy to mobilise voters living outside Melaka, including those from the Klang Valley and Johor Bahru, who had been following national political developments.
“However, voters will still base their decisions on everyday issues such as the cost of living, development and the performance of their respective elected representatives,” he said.
