As Negeri Sembilan heads to the polls on Saturday, attention is focused on whether Pakatan Harapan (PH) can hold its ground or if Barisan Nasional (BN) can build on the momentum from its landslide victory in the Johor election.
The contest is largely shaping up as a straight fight between PH and BN, with Perikatan Nasional (PN) backing BN in selected seats.
PH is contesting all 36 state seats, while BN is fielding candidates in 25 constituencies and leaving the remaining 11 to its electoral partner, PN.
Although Bersatu remains a PN component party, it is contesting 24 seats under its own logo after splitting with PAS. However, most observers believe it is unlikely to significantly influence the outcome.
Meanwhile, smaller parties such as Muda, Pejuang and Parti Bersama Malaysia have opted not to enter the contest.
While many analysts expect BN to emerge victorious, several constituencies are expected to witness closely fought contests.
Seats expected to see close contests
Linggi is among the most closely watched seats after Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun moved from Sikamat, which he had represented for 18 years, to contest in the long-time BN stronghold.
He will face incumbent BN assemblyman Faizal Ramli and Bersatu’s Zamri Said. Analyst Azmi Hassan predicts a PH victory, while Mazlan Ali and Awang Azman Pawi favour BN.
Another key constituency is Chennah, where DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook is seeking a fourth consecutive term. Although analysts agree PH remains the favourite, they say voting patterns among Malay, Chinese and Orang Asli voters could influence the size of Loke’s winning majority.
Sikamat has also drawn attention following Aminuddin’s departure. PH has fielded his political secretary, Nor Azman Mohamad, in a contest that will test whether the coalition can retain the seat without the menteri besar’s personal influence.
Azmi predicts PH will hold the seat, Mazlan rates it as an even contest between PH and PN, while Awang expects PN to emerge victorious.
Analysts split on several marginal seats
Jeram Padang is expected to remain with BN, according to all three analysts, despite the constituency’s increasingly competitive nature.
The four-cornered contest features BN’s Zaidy Abdul Kadir, PH’s former Kapar MP G Manivannan, Bersatu’s R Sri Sanjeevan and an Orang Asli candidate.
Lenggeng is another closely watched seat after BN and PH decided to contest separately despite previously cooperating in the 2023 state election.
Azmi and Awang believe BN has the advantage, while Mazlan considers the contest too close to call between BN and PH.
In Labu, analysts also expect a tight race after the seat changed hands in both the 2018 and 2023 elections.
Azmi and Awang favour BN, while Mazlan rates the contest as evenly balanced between BN and PH.
Ampangan could prove to be one of the most unpredictable contests.
The constituency has frequently changed hands over the past four elections and now features former PKR assemblyman Rafie Abd Malek, who is contesting under the PN banner after joining PAS.
Azmi and Awang predict PN will win the seat, while Mazlan believes the outcome remains evenly balanced between PH and PN.
