Former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming has projected that Barisan Nasional (BN) is on course for a significantly stronger performance in the Johor state election, with the possibility of winning as many as 53 of the 56 seats being contested on July 11.
The former DAP election strategist said such a result would improve on BN’s 40-seat victory in the 2022 Johor state election.
Based on his projection, Pakatan Harapan (PH) would secure the remaining three seats, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) could fail to win any constituency.
Projection based on previous election trends
Ong said his analysis was based on the vote shares recorded by BN, PH and PN in the 2022 general election, when PH won 13 of Johor’s 25 parliamentary seats.
According to those results, he said PH would have captured 31 state seats with 43% of the popular vote, compared with the 13 state seats it eventually secured in the 2022 state election, including one won by Muda under its electoral understanding with PH.
However, Ong said support from Chinese and Indian voters had peaked during the general election and was unlikely to be replicated in the upcoming state polls.
PH campaign facing challenges
Ong said PH appeared to lack a clear and cohesive campaign narrative after the first week of campaigning, apart from criticising BN’s menteri besar candidate, Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
He also noted that PH had yet to announce its candidate for menteri besar, while several senior state leaders were not contesting, creating what he described as a leadership vacuum and limiting the coalition’s ability to shape its campaign message.
Ong pointed out that PH was only unveiling its manifesto later in the campaign, whereas BN released its manifesto the day after nomination day.
He said the late launch would leave PH with limited time to familiarise both its candidates and voters with its policy proposals.
BN victory could have wider impact
Ong also said PN was unlikely to perform strongly following the deterioration of relations between PAS and Bersatu.
He added that Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad’s Parti Bersama Malaysia, which is contesting 15 seats, could affect PH’s vote share, while Muda is fielding candidates in four constituencies.
According to Ong, a dominant BN victory in Johor could influence the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan state election and potentially accelerate the dissolution of Parliament later this year ahead of the 16th general election.
BN and PH are contesting all 56 seats in Johor, while PN is fielding candidates in 33 constituencies. PAS is contesting 11 seats and has urged its supporters to back BN candidates in seats where PN is not contesting.
In the 2022 Johor state election, BN won 40 seats, followed by PH with 12, PN with three and Muda with one.
