The growing rift between PAS and Bersatu could have serious consequences for both parties and may ultimately weaken Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) prospects in the 16th General Election (GE16), according to political analysts.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia senior political science lecturer Jamaie Hamil said the continued dispute could erode support for both parties and jeopardise their ability to retain seats currently held under PN administrations in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
“The conflict does not benefit either party and will have very negative consequences for both PAS and Bersatu, which could lead to PN being rejected in the next general election,” he told the New Straits Times.
Analysts see coalition ties deteriorating
Jamaie said the relationship between PAS and Bersatu had effectively broken down, noting that the decision to end cooperation originated from PAS rather than Bersatu.
“This was decided by PAS, not Bersatu. PAS has effectively removed Bersatu from their cooperation. So how can PAS still use the PN coalition when Bersatu is part of it,” he said.
He added that voters could interpret the dispute as evidence that PAS and Bersatu were no longer the preferred political forces they had been during the previous two general elections.
According to Jamaie, such perceptions could result in both parties losing parliamentary and state seats, while several PN-held states could become vulnerable to challenges from Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN).
Concerns over PN’s future cohesion
Jamaie said recent developments suggested PAS and Bersatu were increasingly moving in different directions despite both parties continuing to identify themselves as part of PN.
“From this perspective, people see that the split makes it hard to trust the coalition for votes because they cannot actually cooperate.
“In my view, PN as a functioning coalition effectively no longer exists. Even though it still exists formally, it is difficult to believe it can win the next general election,” he said.
He also argued that Bersatu remained a key force within PN despite PAS holding the largest number of parliamentary seats in the coalition.
“In terms of leadership, direction and contributions such as the role of the opposition leader, all of that comes from Bersatu, not PAS. So the rift between PAS and Bersatu has a major impact on PN,” he said.
Internal tensions seen as biggest challenge
Meanwhile, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin political analyst Mohamad Hafis Amat Simin described the latest developments as the most critical and volatile phase in PN’s history since its formation in 2020.
“What is unfolding is no longer a mere disagreement but a struggle over leadership, influence and the future direction of the opposition bloc,” he said.
Hafis said differences within political alliances were normal, but open political confrontation and the prospect of electoral contests between coalition partners indicated weakening internal conflict-management mechanisms.
He said the situation raised broader questions about PN’s ability to function as a united and stable coalition.
While PN may remain intact until GE16, Hafis said the real challenge was whether it could continue operating as a genuinely cohesive alliance.
“A coalition’s strength depends on trust, discipline, power-sharing and dispute resolution, not just logos or statements,” he said.
Hafis noted that PAS currently holds significant influence through its control of Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, as well as its shared administration of Perlis, while Bersatu remains determined to preserve its position as PN’s founding party and national opposition face.
He also said the emergence of Parti Wawasan Negara led by Hamzah Zainudin had added a new dimension to opposition politics and could reshape leadership dynamics within the bloc.
“PAS has reportedly given recognition to Hamzah, including support for his role as Opposition Leader, indicating shifting internal balance.
“The situation could lead to dual centres of power involving Hamzah and Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin, if unmanaged,” he said.
Hafis added that although PN-led state governments remained stable for now, internal tensions could distract from governance and complicate future electoral negotiations.
He said the greatest threat facing PN was not external opposition but internal conflict, warning that unresolved divisions could weaken the coalition’s cohesion and undermine voter confidence.
“PN could lose its founding identity as a unified Malay opposition coalition if divisions persist.
“Ultimately, PN’s future depends on whether its leaders prioritise compromise and coalition discipline over individual party ambitions, where unresolved tensions could mark the beginning of its decline in Malaysian politics,” he said.
