PAS is unlikely to abandon Perikatan Nasional (PN), particularly coalition partner Wawasan, simply to form an alliance with Umno in the next general election (GE16), political analysts say.
Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said PAS was more likely to keep its options open by cooperating with Barisan Nasional (BN) while maintaining ties with its PN partners.
‘PAS will not rush to abandon Wawasan. PAS may prefer cooperation with BN while working closely with members of PN, except Bersatu,’ he told FMT.
While PAS may have greater electoral incentives to work solely with Umno, Sivamurugan said leaving PN altogether could complicate the Islamic party’s narrative of Malay-Muslim unity.
‘The real test is whether PAS sees ummah unity as a broader principle to work with other parties or primarily as a strategic cooperation with Umno,’ he said.
Wawasan seats could complicate negotiations
Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said Umno could be eyeing seats currently held by Wawasan.
He said failure to reach an agreement over seat allocation could result in BN contesting GE16 on its own.
‘If neither BN nor PN is prepared to give way or they fail to reach a compromise, PAS and Wawasan could ultimately remain together while Umno contests on its own,’ he told FMT.
Awang Azman said it would be difficult for PAS to simply abandon PN, describing talk of such a move as ‘possible rhetorical manoeuvring’ ahead of the Melaka state election.
‘Put it simply, PAS is just talking about leaving PN without actually intending to do so,’ he said.
He also pointed out that PAS was largely behind the rise of Wawasan.
‘Wawasan is a project under PAS leaders. So, it is difficult to see PAS simply abandoning Wawasan,’ he said.
Wawasan is largely helmed by former Bersatu leaders including opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin, Beluran MP Ronald Kiandee and Masjid Tanah MP Mas Ermieyati Samsudin, who were themselves originally in Umno.
PAS-Umno alliance remains possible
PN, which is led by PAS, has reportedly been given 30 days to submit representations to the Registrar of Societies (RoS) or face deregistration.
PAS’ Sura assemblyman Tengku Fakhruddin Tengku Fauzi appeared unfazed by the reports, saying in a Facebook post: ‘We have PAS’.
Days earlier, Bersatu leader Afif Bahardin raised the possibility of PAS leaving PN to establish a formal political alliance with Umno-BN. Afif said Bersatu was prepared to lead PN again if that happened.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s political aide Syahir Sulaiman dismissed Afif’s remarks, saying the issue of PN’s leadership must be decided by the coalition’s supreme council.
Umno has indicated that it prefers to hold talks on a possible GE16 alliance directly with PAS rather than with PN.
Unlike Sivamurugan and Awang Azman, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali said the possibility of PAS eventually choosing Umno over its existing coalition partners could not be ruled out.
He said cooperation with Umno would offer PAS greater political returns, particularly as both parties could promote a Malay-Muslim unity narrative to Malay voters.
Despite decades of rivalry, Mazlan said the country’s two largest Malay-Muslim parties had shown through the now-defunct Muafakat Nasional that they could work together when their interests converged.
Separately, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said Umno would need PAS in both the Melaka state election and GE16. However, he did not expect Hadi’s party to abandon Wawasan, a multiracial party, outright.
