An electoral understanding between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu in the Melaka state election could fail if Umno and PAS agree to form an alliance, an analyst says.
James Chin of the University of Tasmania said PH and Bersatu appeared eager to reach a pact, even an informal one, particularly after the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) alliance secured a convincing victory in the Negeri Sembilan polls.
“Both are pushed into a corner, and they think the best way to approach Umno-PAS is for a pact to be formed between them. But if Umno and PAS can reach a deal, then the PH-Bersatu pact will fail, except in DAP areas,” he told FMT.
Chin said the main rationale for a PH-Bersatu alliance, despite their history of bitter rivalry, was to ensure straight fights and prevent the splitting of votes among voters opposed to Umno and PAS.
Bersatu’s political position complicates possible pact
Bersatu, co-founded by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, was previously a component party of PH and played a key role in the collapse of the PH-led federal government in February 2020, paving the way for Muhyiddin to become prime minister.
Despite co-founding Perikatan Nasional (PN), Bersatu has since fallen out of favour within the coalition following its falling-out with PAS, which currently chairs the opposition alliance.
In the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls, the BN-PN pact secured a two-thirds majority with 25 seats, while PH won the remaining 11. Bersatu contested 24 seats but suffered heavy defeats across the board.
In the 2021 Melaka state election, BN won 21 seats, while PH secured five and PN took two, with all three coalitions contesting all 28 seats.
Bersatu could help PH in marginal seats
Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Bersatu could provide PH with a significant boost in votes, particularly as 10 of the 21 seats won by BN in 2021 were decided by relatively narrow majorities.
The seats were Serkam, which BN won by 79 votes; Pengkalan Batu by 131; Duyong by 200; Tanjung Bidara by 364; Gadek and Durian Tunggal by 559 each; Paya Rumput by 629; Pantai Kundor by 827; Rembia by 860; and Kelebang by 876.
Fauzi said Bersatu could help PH secure enough additional Malay-Muslim votes to tip the balance in these closely contested constituencies.
“BN’s dominance in Melaka is not as overwhelming as it seems. With the help of a few thousand more Malay-Muslim votes, it might just be enough for PH to tip the scales in Melaka,” he said.
“With Bersatu as PH’s partner, it gives some assurance to Malay-Muslim voters that their plight would not be overlooked should the PH-Bersatu alliance come to power in Melaka, and even nationally.”
However, Fauzi said Bersatu would be more eager to secure an agreement with PH than PH would be to partner Bersatu, as Muhyiddin’s party would want to avoid repeating its heavy losses in Negeri Sembilan.
“For PH, while a tie-up with Bersatu may offer some benefits, Bersatu is not indispensable. PH can do without Bersatu, but for Bersatu, going it alone in Melaka would only be a repetition of the Negeri Sembilan polls,” he said.
Melaka voters will go to the polls on Nov 14 for the state’s 16th election.
