Pakatan Harapan (PH) could wrest several marginal seats from Barisan Nasional (BN) in the Johor state election if Chinese voter turnout reaches 65 percent, according to the Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies (CMCS).
Quoted by Oriental Daily, the think tank said PH had a slow start to its campaign but its support had stabilised after the first week of campaigning.
It said the coalition must now focus on encouraging outstation voters to return home while also winning over Malay swing voters who backed Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the 2022 Johor state election.
CMCS also noted that PN has faced internal divisions since PAS ended its political cooperation with Bersatu last month. Although both parties are contesting under the same coalition banner in Johor, they are not campaigning for one another.
Marginal seats remain key battlegrounds
According to CMCS, a stronger campaign in the final days, coupled with a 65 percent turnout among Chinese voters, would significantly improve PH’s prospects in closely contested constituencies.
The think tank identified three seats won by BN with majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes in the 2022 state election: Bukit Pasir, with a 198-vote majority, Parit Yaani with 294 votes, and Serom with 699 votes.
In the 2022 Johor state election, overall voter turnout stood at 54.92 percent, with BN winning 40 of the 56 state seats to secure a two-thirds majority.
However, turnout increased to 74.13 percent during the 15th General Election held eight months later, when PH won 13 parliamentary seats in Johor compared with BN’s nine.
CMCS said Chinese voter turnout in the 2022 state election was only about 45 percent, largely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, as many outstation voters did not return home and others avoided polling stations over health concerns.
It projected Chinese voter turnout in this election at between 55 percent and 60 percent, an improvement from 2022 but still below the level recorded during the general election.
DAP faces challenge in four seats
CMCS also said DAP faces an uphill task in defending four of its 10 state seats.
It noted that constituencies with more than 50 percent Chinese voters, including Skudai, provide the party with a stronger chance of retaining support.
While DAP’s image was affected by issues surrounding former Skudai assemblyman Marina Ibrahim, the think tank said the controversy had largely faded from public attention and was expected to have only a limited impact.
The report identified Jementah, Tangkak, Perling and Johor Jaya as key battlegrounds because Chinese voters account for less than half of the electorate, while Malays make up around 40 percent.
CMCS said BN could have an advantage in Tangkak, Johor Jaya and Perling as PN is not fielding candidates in those constituencies. However, it stressed that voter turnout would remain the decisive factor.
The think tank also said Muda and Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama Malaysia could reduce DAP’s vote share by attracting traditional PH supporters.
Although it believes the current political environment continues to favour larger parties, CMCS said smaller parties could still influence the outcome in closely contested seats.
It added that if Bersama retains its election deposit in Johor Jaya, it could split the reformist vote sufficiently to affect DAP’s chances of retaining the seat.
