For decades, the Philippine Sea has been viewed as the main maritime gateway through which the United States and its allies would move forces to Taiwan in the event of a conflict with mainland China.
However, military experts now believe the waters east of Taiwan could instead become one of the most critical battlegrounds, as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) expands its presence into the western Pacific.
Michael Bosack, director of the non-profit Parley Policy Initiative, said the Philippine Sea would become a decisive location for aircraft carrier operations because dense land-based missile networks in Northeast Asia make operations closer to shore increasingly risky.
He said deploying carrier strike groups in the Philippine Sea would allow China to shape the broader maritime battlespace, establish a regional buffer and complicate attempts by foreign naval forces to intervene.
Bosack added that such deployments could not only intercept opposing fleets but also discourage potential adversaries from launching lengthy operations into the region.
PLA carriers seen supporting broader combat system
Brendan Mulvaney, director of the US Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, said China’s aircraft carriers should not be viewed as the PLA Navy’s primary weapons against Taiwan.
He argued that many observers mistakenly assume Beijing intends to employ its carrier strike groups in the same way as the United States.
According to Mulvaney, China already possesses extensive land-based aircraft, missile systems, surface combatants and submarines capable of operating near its coastline. Instead of serving mainly as strike platforms, aircraft carriers would function as part of a wider maritime joint-fire system linking warships, submarines, bombers and missile forces.
He said the carriers’ primary role would be to coordinate and support joint operations rather than conduct the main attacks.
James Holmes, a naval strategist at the US Naval War College, said Beijing’s greatest naval challenge remained breaking through the first island chain, which stretches from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines, to gain reliable access to the wider Pacific Ocean.
He described China’s strategy as a “fortress fleet” approach, in which aircraft carriers extend the PLA Navy’s operational reach while remaining closely integrated with mainland-based aircraft and missile capabilities.
The strategy has become increasingly feasible following the commissioning of the Type 003 aircraft carrier Fujian last November.
Once fully operational, Fujian’s electromagnetic catapult system will enable it to launch heavier aircraft, including the KJ-600 airborne early warning aircraft, significantly expanding surveillance and command capabilities over the Philippine Sea.
High-value assets still face major risks
Christopher Sharman, director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College, said the PLA Navy would carefully weigh the operational benefits of deploying its aircraft carriers against the risks of exposing such valuable assets in heavily contested waters.
He noted that Chinese military publications describe a layered defensive system in which aircraft, submarines and escort vessels protect the carrier, allowing it to function as the command-and-control centre of the strike group.
According to Sharman, this defensive structure suggests the PLA would seek to preserve the combat effectiveness of its carriers rather than unnecessarily expose them in the most contested areas.
Mulvaney added that a carrier’s greatest value lies in information superiority rather than firepower.
He said denying opponents a continuous targeting picture could prove more important than launching large-scale strikes against Taiwan itself.
Instead of seeking direct carrier-versus-carrier confrontations with the US Navy, Chinese carriers would likely operate as part of an integrated force alongside submarines, bombers, long-range missiles and land-based aircraft while extending the contest for air superiority into the Philippine Sea.
However, operating farther into the Pacific also presents significant risks.
Japanese naval forces, Tokyo’s expanding missile capabilities, allied submarines and long-range air power could all threaten PLA carrier groups operating east of Taiwan, where they would be farther from the protection of mainland-based air and missile systems.
Jeffrey Hornung, Japan lead at the Rand Corporation, said China should not assume its carriers would easily shift the balance of any conflict.
He added that Japan’s growing counterstrike capabilities and submarine fleet could pose a serious threat to PLA aircraft carriers operating well east of the Taiwan Strait.
