If BN goes solo in Melaka and Johor state elections, Perikatan Nasional—not Pakatan Harapan—would likely be its biggest rival, say analysts. BN’s historical strongholds give it an edge, amid PN internal tensions and PH seat demands. #MalaysiaPolitics #MelakaJohorPolls #BN #PerikatanNasional #StateElections
Perikatan Nasional and not Pakatan Harapan will be the main rival to Barisan Nasional should BN decide to contest the Melaka and Johor state elections on its own ticket, according to a political observer.
BN’s Advantage in Traditional Strongholds
Ilham Centre executive director Hisomuddin Bakar said BN would have an advantage in the two states, which have historically been BN strongholds.
A solo contest would allow BN to test the real level of acceptance among Malay voters for Umno without being burdened by the perception of cooperating with a unity government that also involves DAP, he said.
Other Malay-based parties such as Pejuang and Berjasa do not have significant influence in these two states, he added, while support for PH remains largely concentrated in urban areas.
PN Weakened by Internal Challenges
However, PN has been weakened by internal matters, including tensions between coalition allies PAS and Bersatu, as well as leadership issues within Bersatu.
The PAS machinery in Melaka and Johor is not as strong as in the east coast and northern states, Hisomuddin noted.
The suggestion that BN contest the Melaka and Johor elections under its own banner was raised on March 7 by MCA president Wee Ka Siong, who said it was reasonable for the coalition to seek a fresh mandate.
Potential Vote Split and Seat Disputes
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said BN votes would be split with PH, giving PN the advantage should BN go solo.
However, he believes Umno and BN can stand on their own strengths in these two states, despite BN being weaker than it was at the previous elections five years ago.
Azmi said disputes with PH over seat allocations could be a factor behind the push for BN to go solo.
PH wants 14 seats in Melaka, for example, which he would say is impossible, because Melaka Umno won 21 in the last election. Giving up seven seats to PH seems like a no-go for Umno, he added.
BN currently holds 40 seats in the Johor assembly and 21 in Melaka. Elections to the Melaka state assembly are expected later this year, although the state assembly’s term expires in February next year, while the Johor polls are due by mid-June 2027.
