For the 23 million people in Taiwan, the most significant diplomatic engagement of 2026 may be a meeting where they have no seat at the table.
When US President Donald Trump travels to Beijing next month, Chinese President Xi Jinping has signaled that Taiwan will be the primary focus of their discussions.
This marks a notable shift from their meeting in South Korea last year, where the issue was intentionally sidelined.
Taipei is now carefully monitoring for any indications that the Trump administration might adjust long-standing US policy in exchange for economic concessions, such as increased Chinese purchases of American aircraft or agricultural products.
Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies and an adviser to China’s foreign ministry, suggested that the logic for the US is straightforward.
He argued that if Washington wishes to avoid a major military conflict with Beijing, it must refrain from supporting a separatist political agenda or Taiwan independence.
Conflicting policy signals
China’s foreign ministry has reiterated that Taiwan represents its core interest and serves as the political foundation of US-China relations.
Beijing maintains that peace in the Taiwan Strait is incompatible with the notion of Taiwan independence, describing the two as being as different as fire and water.
Despite these pressures, the US State Department has historically followed a one China policy, which acknowledges but does not accept China’s claim over the island.
While the US does not officially support independence, it remains committed to assisting Taiwan with its self-defence capabilities.
Experts believe that even a minor change in US rhetoric could significantly impact Beijing’s assessment of American resolve. This is particularly sensitive given Taiwan’s role as a semiconductor powerhouse and its strategic position in the Western Pacific military balance.
Defence and intelligence ties
While some observers worry about a transactional approach to diplomacy, Trump administration officials have publicly stated that there has been no change in Taiwan policy.
Privately, they point out that during just over a year of his second term, the President has approved more weapons sales to Taiwan than his predecessor, Joe Biden, did throughout his entire term.
These sales include a recent 11 billion dollar arms package, the largest on record, which prompted Beijing to conduct war games around the island in late December.
Despite the tensions, the top US diplomat in Taiwan, Raymond Greene, has offered reassurances that American commitments remain firm under the Taiwan Relations Act.
The strategic value of the island also remains a critical factor. Security sources note that Washington utilises advanced radar stations and listening posts in Taiwan’s mountains to gather intelligence on China.
Former adviser Robert O’Brien remarked that losing Taiwan is not a legacy the President would wish to leave behind.
Escalating regional pressure
In the lead-up to the summit, Beijing has employed a combination of incentives and restrictive measures.
While offering trade and tourism benefits, China was recently accused by Taipei of pressuring three African nations to block overflight rights for President Lai Ching-te, forcing the cancellation of a trip to Eswatini.
President Lai maintains that Taiwan is already a sovereign nation under its official name, the Republic of China. However, Beijing views him as an illegitimate leader pushing the region toward conflict.
As the summit approaches, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council deputy minister Shen Yu-chung confirmed that officials are intensifying communications with Washington.
The administration in Taipei remains on high alert, watching for any policy shifts that might emerge from the high-level talks in Beijing.
