Closer political cooperation between Umno and Pas could bring political gains but also carry risks, analysts say, as Umno prepares to form a committee to explore cooperation with Pas.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the proposed understanding would allow Umno to keep its options open while assessing whether closer cooperation with Pas was politically viable.
This would include gauging the reactions of its grassroots, Pas and its existing political partners, he said.
“Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has clarified that the ‘Grand Collaboration’ is not a merger but an understanding aimed at avoiding damaging electoral clashes.
“Therefore, it is a serious opening for negotiations, but its significance will depend on whether both parties can agree on candidates, constituencies and their relationships with other political partners,” he said when contacted.
Umno and Pas have traditionally competed for Malay-Muslim voters, making closer cooperation between the two parties politically significant.
Earlier, Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said the party would form a negotiation committee to explore political cooperation with Pas, following calls by leaders and delegates at the 2026 Umno General Assembly for closer ties.
Trust remains a key challenge
Tawfik said relations between Umno and Pas leaders had warmed, although trust remained cautious and conditional.
He said reciprocal visits to the parties’ assemblies and Zahid’s “blue meets green” remark indicated a willingness to reopen political communication.
However, the collapse of the earlier Muafakat Nasional arrangement continued to shape perceptions.
“Umno delegates will want proof that Pas can honour a new agreement, while Pas must also consider its existing relationship with Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional.
“Consequently, a comprehensive alliance remains difficult in the immediate term. A limited electoral understanding, particularly an agreement to avoid three-cornered contests in selected constituencies, is more realistic.”
Tawfik said such cooperation could allow both parties to assess each other’s sincerity before considering a broader arrangement.
It could also consolidate parts of the Malay vote and prevent support from splitting in marginal constituencies.
“This may improve their chances, especially where three-cornered contests previously benefited their opponents,” he said.
However, he said votes could not simply be added together, as some moderate Malay and non-Malay voters might view the partnership as increasingly conservative or exclusively Malay-Muslim.
“This could weaken Barisan Nasional’s multiracial appeal and place MCA, MIC and other BN partners in an uncomfortable position,” he said.
He added that the pact’s electoral value would depend on how it was presented.
“If it is presented as stable and inclusive power-sharing, it may broaden support. If it is framed narrowly around ethnic and religious mobilisation, it could secure the core Malay electorate while losing voters in mixed constituencies,” he said.
National gains not guaranteed
On the prospects of an Umno-Pas victory in Melaka and significant national gains, Tawfik said BN remained well placed in Melaka, having won 21 of 28 state seats in the 2021 election.
“Cooperation with Pas could further consolidate Malay support and reduce three-cornered contests.
“But significant gains nationally would still depend on disciplined seat negotiations, effective vote transfers and the ability to retain moderate, non-Malay, Sabah and Sarawak voters.
“Therefore, an Umno-Pas pact could strengthen both parties, but it does not automatically guarantee control of Putrajaya.”
Meanwhile, geostrategist and Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said the sentiment among Umno grassroots was that working with Pas was the only way, as they saw it, to safeguard Malay rights, Islam as the religion of the Federation and the monarchy.
He said trust between Umno grassroots and Pakatan Harapan remained very thin, particularly because DAP was part of the coalition.
“The trust is very thin. So I think that’s the reason the blue must meet the green in this particular case,” he said, referring to potential cooperation between Umno and Pas.
Asked whether such cooperation could alienate non-Malay voters, Azmi said it would depend on how Umno managed the arrangement.
“They have to demonstrate that they are in the driver’s seat, that they are in control, not Pas. So I think that perception is very, very important here,” he said.
