Umno’s dream of regaining its standing as the country’s dominant Malay party is expected to be the biggest challenge in seat talks between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional for the next general election.
Political analysts said the BN linchpin must contest more Malay-majority seats to achieve its goal. However, PN anchor PAS now holds more seats and is unlikely to give up any of those it won in the 2022 general election easily.
PAS won 43 parliamentary seats in GE15, while Umno took 26.
In the 166 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, Malay voters make up at least 51% of the electorate. In 86 of those seats, Malays account for more than 65% of voters.
These seats are the battleground for Umno and PAS.
Deadlocks possible in PAS strongholds
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said this could lead to deadlocks in seat negotiations, especially in states where PAS dominates and Umno was previously wiped out.
Umno has neither parliamentary nor state seats in Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, and holds only two state seats in Kelantan.
PAS, on the other hand, holds the lion’s share of parliamentary and state seats in all four states, and leads the Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu governments.
“Would PAS be willing to give up seats in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis to Umno? It would be a tall order,” Mazlan said.
“And for Umno to regain its past dominance, it would surely have to contest more Malay seats,” he added.
Under an arrangement between the two coalitions for the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan election, BN contested 25 seats while Perikatan Nasional fielded candidates in 11 seats. BN eventually won 18 while PN took seven. These are Malay-majority seats.
Both coalitions have stated their intention to continue with the alliance in the Melaka polls, but PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang said the “formula” for the cooperation could change.
Hadi pointed out that despite BN’s big win in the 2021 Melaka state election, the coalition does not hold any of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats.
Past results not the only factor
Ilham Centre chief researcher Yusri Ibrahim previously questioned whether PAS would be as willing to make way for Umno to contest more seats in GE16 as it did in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls.
Yusri pointed out that the prime minister’s seat will also be at stake, given that the leader of the party that wins the most seats has typically been appointed to the country’s top federal post.
However, academic A Aziz Azizam said the results of the previous election should not necessarily be the benchmark.
Aziz, who is with Universiti Teknologi Mara, said both coalitions must consider current voting trends, the need for credible candidates, local demographics, voter turnout and the possibility of multi-cornered fights.
He pointed out that top-level agreements do not always lead to grassroots supporters falling in line.
“That makes it even more crucial that those factors are accounted for when BN and PN sit down to divide up the seats between them,” he added.
