Umno is deliberately avoiding binding political pacts ahead of the next general election, with analysts saying the party wants to rebuild its electoral standing before committing to coalition arrangements that could later limit its room to manoeuvre.
Universiti Malaya professor Awang Azman Pawi said an early binding pact could leave Umno trapped in a seat allocation that does not reflect its actual strength.
It could also create a “political dependency” on its allies instead of compelling the party to rebuild its Malay support base, he said.
“Umno’s long-term strategy must be to regain its stand-alone electoral value, so that other parties would want to collaborate with Umno because it is strong, not because it has no choice but to collaborate,” he told FMT.
Different states require different strategies
Awang Azman also pointed out that Malaysia has “non-uniformed state politics”, making it difficult to apply a fixed political pact across different parts of the country.
“An Umno-PAS formula might be competitive in certain states, but the same formula would make it difficult for Umno to penetrate mixed seats or maintain relationships with Sabah and Sarawakian parties,” he said.
Ilham Centre chief executive Hisommuddin Bakar said binding pacts could reduce the room Umno needs to rebuild its position in Malay heartland seats, most of which are currently held by Perikatan Nasional.
Without clear evidence that Umno’s support has recovered, he said the party would likely enter seat negotiations from a position of weakness.
“In uncontested areas, the party’s machinery risks losing its function, becoming increasingly weak, and failing to produce a new generation of leadership,” he said.
Umno leaders call for flexibility
The two analysts were commenting on calls by Umno leaders at the party’s general assembly for Umno to remain unrestrained by binding political pacts.
Deputy president Mohamad Hasan said any political cooperation aimed at Malay unity should remain flexible. He also said Umno did not need to be part of a new political coalition and would remain in Barisan Nasional “now and forever”.
Johor Umno Youth chief Noor Azleen Ambrose went further, telling the assembly that Umno should not be bound to any party at the state or federal level after GE16.
He said grassroots Malays remained unhappy with the unity government arrangement formed with Pakatan Harapan after GE15.
Autonomy remains central to Umno’s strategy
However, Hisommuddin said the remarks by the two leaders should be viewed as an attempt to restore Umno’s autonomy within existing arrangements, rather than as an outright rejection of coalition politics.
Umno could still partner with other parties to meet immediate political needs, he said, but such partnerships should not become a “lifeline” on which the party’s survival depends.
Hisommuddin said Umno must first recover its past strength as the main Malay political platform, supported by comprehensive machinery and a direct relationship with the masses.
“Once Umno regains substantial, widespread, and measurable support, the party will have the freedom to determine the most advantageous form of cooperation,” he said.
Awang Azman described this as Mohamad’s concept of “strategic flexibility”, where Umno’s permanent home remains BN but the party can reach case-by-case understandings with other parties depending on the state, the election and government stability.
Hisommuddin added that the statements should not be interpreted as unease within Umno over cooperation with PAS under the “ummah unity” banner.
“Ummah unity can continue to be explored, but Umno wants to ensure that its identity, autonomy and its political interests are not eroded,” he said.
