An analyst warns that Umno would stand to lose significantly if it exits the unity government. Calls for such a move are expected to grow louder in the coming weeks. These demands are unlikely to result in major changes.
Hisommudin Bakar, executive director of the Ilham Centre think tank, said it would be irrational for Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to consider these calls. Umno is not ready to face a snap general election now. Upcoming state assembly elections in Melaka and Johor add further pressure.
Weak Machinery and MN Revival Risks
Umno’s party machinery remains weak, Hisommudin noted. Reviving the 2019 Muafakat Nasional pact with PAS would weaken Umno even more. The Perlis political crisis and PAS’s dominance in Perikatan Nasional show the challenges of negotiating from a position of weakness.
If Umno stays with Pakatan Harapan, it would likely secure the majority of Malay seats in the next general election. This gives Umno a better chance to wrest seats from PAS and Bersatu. Staying in the coalition offers stronger positioning.
Rhetoric urging Umno to leave the unity government will intensify as the party’s general assembly approaches. However, it will not lead to real action. Umno leadership understands the difficult choices ahead.
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Leaving the government would leave Umno in a tough spot. It would either play second fiddle to PAS in the opposition or risk marginalisation. Both options lack appeal.
Zahid must take Umno Youth’s call seriously. Pressure could mount if grassroots members align with Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh. The leadership will weigh these realities carefully.
On January 3, Akmal called for Umno to withdraw support from the unity government. He cited repeated violations of red lines involving Islam, the Malay community, and the monarchy. He urged a shift to the opposition.
