Umno is expected to face a challenging contest in the upcoming Negeri Sembilan election, with analysts citing the party’s narrow victories in 2023 and shifting Malay voter sentiment following a recent royal dispute in the state.
Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Umno appeared to be in a more vulnerable position than its unity government partner, Pakatan Harapan (PH), largely because of its intense competition with Perikatan Nasional (PN) for Malay votes.
‘Umno is the one in trouble. Their majorities are small because they had to compete with PN for Malay votes,’ she said.
Narrow victories leave Umno exposed
Syaza said PH is better placed to defend most of the seats it secured in the 2023 state election, noting that many of its victories, particularly those won by DAP, came with comfortable majorities.
The Negeri Sembilan legislative assembly was dissolved last Friday after Umno assemblymen withdrew support for Menteri Besar Aminuddin Harun over his handling of a royal dispute involving four chieftains seeking to remove Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir as Yang di-Pertuan Besar.
On June 9, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi announced that Barisan Nasional (BN) would contest the state election independently after PH declared its intention to compete in all 36 state seats.
In the 2023 election, PH and BN contested as allies, winning 17 and 14 seats respectively, while PN captured five seats, including three won by PAS and two by Bersatu.
Eight of BN’s victories were achieved with margins of fewer than 700 votes: Jeram Padang (693), Lenggeng (685), Senaling (662), Palong (564), Sungai Lui (535), Seri Menanti (370), Kota (135) and Juasseh (78).
By comparison, only two of PH’s 17 seats were won by similarly narrow margins, namely Klawang (577) and Ampangan (329).
Royal dispute may influence voter sentiment
Syaza said BN’s seats, many of which are Malay-majority constituencies, could be vulnerable even to modest shifts in voter support. She added that Umno may also face challenges because of its perceived role in the royal dispute.
‘The people, from my understanding and observations, are not happy with the crisis and blame has been put on Umno. So voters would want to punish Umno,’ she said.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia analyst Mazlan Ali said the royal dispute had generated sympathy for Tuanku Muhriz among Negeri Sembilan residents while creating negative perceptions of Umno among some sections of the electorate.
‘As a result, there could be political repercussions for Umno because there is a perception among the public that the party was not friendly towards the Yang di-Pertuan Besar,’ he said.
Malay-majority seats expected to be decisive
Hisomuddin Bakar of Ilham Centre said the outcome of the election would ultimately depend on voter turnout and where support is concentrated.
He said PH’s strength lies in urban, Chinese-majority and mixed constituencies, while Umno remains competitive in many Malay-majority seats through its longstanding grassroots network.
According to Hisomuddin, 24 of Negeri Sembilan’s 36 state seats have Malay-majority electorates, making them the key battlegrounds in the election.
‘Although BN and PH each have their own areas of strength, the real deciding factor in this state election lies in the 24 Malay-majority seats that will be contested in three-cornered fights.
‘The ability of both coalitions to manage their campaign strategies, mobilise supporters to turn out and win over fence-sitters will be the key factors determining the final outcome,’ he said.
Meanwhile, Universiti Sains Malaysia analyst Sivamurugan Pandian said PH remains the frontrunner due to the advantages of incumbency.
He said the established networks of PKR and DAP in Negeri Sembilan, together with Aminuddin’s leadership, put the coalition in a relatively favourable position.
Nevertheless, Sivamurugan cautioned that cost of living issues and tensions between PH and BN supporters could still affect voting patterns.
‘PH remains favourable, but not without risks,’ he said.
