The 2026 US midterm elections are shaping up to favour the Democrats, with President Donald Trump’s approval rating declining, stronger voter enthusiasm among Democrats and growing dissatisfaction over the economy.
However, the extent of the potential Democratic gains remains uncertain.
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times, has identified five key developments to watch on election night, ranging from closely contested Senate races and shifting suburban voting patterns to the political preferences of younger voters.
1. Texas Senate race: Will voters leave their ballots blank?
More than US$500 million has been spent on the Texas Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, making it one of the most closely watched races this year.
However, Cohn highlighted the possibility of an ‘undervote’, which occurs when voters cast their ballots but leave a particular contest blank.
While this can happen when voters feel they lack sufficient information about candidates, Cohn believes that is unlikely to be the main reason in Texas, where both candidates have received extensive public attention.
He pointed to a New York Times Opinion focus group involving Texas voters who supported Trump, some of whom said they did not intend to vote for Paxton because of the controversies surrounding him.
While some participants found Talarico appealing, others felt his views did not align with their values and said they would not support him either.
Talarico’s supporters generally appear enthusiastic about voting for him, while many of Paxton’s supporters are less convinced about their candidate.
Republicans are counting on reluctant Paxton supporters eventually choosing him as the lesser of two evils. However, Cohn said the focus group findings suggested that a noticeable number of Texas voters could leave the Senate race blank.
2. Partisanship could limit Democratic Senate gains
Democrats need to win several Senate seats in states that supported Trump by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election if they hope to regain control of the chamber.
However, they face an increasingly strong trend of partisan voting in recent Senate elections.
In previous elections, some states voted for one party’s presidential candidate but elected a senator from the opposing party.
Montana and West Virginia, for example, supported Republican presidential candidates while sending Democrats Jon Tester and Joe Manchin to the Senate.
Similarly, Rhode Island, Illinois and Massachusetts previously elected Republican senators despite their broader support for Democrats at the presidential level.
Cohn noted that such split-ticket voting has largely disappeared during the Trump era, apart from exceptions such as Tester and Manchin.
In 2024, Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points and Iowa by 13 points. Both states are now among the Democrats’ Senate targets.
Their ambitions extend even further into traditionally Republican territory, including Texas, South Carolina and Mississippi.
For Democrats to make significant gains in these states, they will need to overcome the strong influence of party loyalty among voters.
3. Ohio’s wealthy suburbs could signal changing political loyalties
Ohio has long been regarded as a key indicator of national political trends, particularly following its pivotal role in the 2004 presidential election.
However, the state has become increasingly Republican at the presidential level. Trump won Ohio by double digits in 2024, marking his largest victory margin there.
Yet Delaware County, a wealthy and rapidly growing suburban area north of Columbus, has been moving in the opposite direction.
In 2004, Republican President George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry there by a two-to-one margin.
But in the 2024 Senate election, Republican Bernie Moreno won the county by just 1.5 percentage points.
Cohn said the changing political preferences of affluent suburban voters could expose the limitations of the Republican strategy of strengthening support among rural and blue-collar voters while losing ground among wealthier suburban communities.
A Democratic victory in Delaware County would be particularly significant, given its long-standing support for Republicans.
4. Florida’s Ninth District tests the Latino vote
Osceola County, a heavily Latino area in Florida, is another important place to watch.
The county, which was strongly Democratic a decade ago, narrowly shifted towards Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Democratic Representative Darren Soto has represented the area for nearly a decade.
However, Florida’s mid-decade redistricting has placed him in a more challenging congressional district, which now includes parts of rural Central Florida and Republican-leaning coastal communities with large populations of conservative retirees.
Cohn said Soto’s chances of retaining his seat could depend on whether a Democratic wave emerges, driven partly by Latino voters returning to the party.
The outcome could provide an indication of whether Democrats can regain support among Latino voters who shifted towards Trump in 2024.
5. Younger voters could turn against Republicans
Cohn also expects younger voters to play a significant role in the midterm elections, potentially reversing the Republican gains recorded in 2024.
For years, Republicans have struggled to attract millennial voters, while Generation Z has generally appeared even more left-leaning.
However, Trump performed better than expected among younger voters in 2024, limiting the Republican losses to 11 percentage points among those aged 18 to 29 and just four points among voters aged 30 to 44.
Cohn believes the 2024 results may prove to be a temporary departure rather than evidence of a lasting shift towards Republicans among younger adults.
Although early voting figures do not provide a definitive prediction, analysts at VoteHub have identified signs that the expected increase in young Republican voters is not materialising.
He suggested that dissatisfaction with the political establishment, previously directed at Democratic President Joe Biden, may now be shifting towards Trump.
Meanwhile, Democrats have promoted several younger political figures, including Talarico, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Michigan politician Abdul El-Sayed.
Cohn suggested that the 2026 midterms could see younger voters return to supporting Democrats, potentially creating another challenge for Republicans.
