Security experts have cautioned against calls for countries to reconsider hosting US military bases, warning that such a move could destabilize Southeast Asia and shift the regional balance of power in favor of China.
Maritime affairs expert Salawati Mat Basir emphasized that the US plays a critical role in checking Beijing’s ambitions. This presence prevents China from unilaterally asserting its claims over significant portions of the South China Sea, which are currently contested by Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
Cornerstone of regional security
Salawati, of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, described US bases in Japan and South Korea as the cornerstone of East Asia’s security architecture. Warships homeported at these locations, such as the USS Higgins and USS George Washington, conduct regular patrols and joint exercises to maintain freedom of navigation.
She argued that closing or scaling back these bases would directly diminish the deterrent against China’s sovereignty claims. A reduced American footprint would likely accelerate a shift toward Chinese dominance, forcing Asean nations to make difficult and potentially compromising strategic choices.
The expert noted that the US remains the primary counterbalance to regional ambitions. Without this force, the security landscape would be fundamentally altered, potentially leading some nations to align more closely with Beijing to secure their own interests rather than maintaining regional cohesion.
Impact on Asean neutrality
International relations expert Liew Wui Chern echoed these concerns, stating that a diminished US presence risks allowing China to expand its influence across maritime and economic domains. He warned that this could put immense pressure on Asean’s long-standing policy of neutrality.
Liew, of Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, suggested that certain nations might adopt hedging strategies to avoid full alignment with China. However, as Beijing’s influence grows, maintaining a neutral posture would become increasingly difficult to sustain amidst heightened geopolitical competition.
The absence of a balancing force could also impact economic engagement. Salawati pointed out that a reduced military footprint by a foreign power often correlates with a decrease in broader economic involvement in the region.
Risks to the wider Indo-Pacific
The risks extend beyond Southeast Asia to the wider Indo-Pacific. Liew warned that a significant US withdrawal would weaken the deterrence against military aggression and increase the overall risk of conflict. Forward bases currently safeguard the interests of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
He noted that these bases facilitate the exchange of defense technology and expertise, which are vital for regional stability. A perceived disengagement by Washington could be interpreted as a lack of commitment, similar to the perceptions that some argue emboldened regional actors in the past.
While the US does not have permanent bases in Southeast Asia, it maintains a military presence in the Philippines and Singapore. Malaysia does not host foreign bases, though Australia maintains a permanent presence at the Royal Malaysian Air Force base in Butterworth under the Five Power Defence Arrangements.
