Amid growing uncertainty in the global 2026 economic outlook, experts say Vietnam’s growth prospects will largely depend on the recovery of domestic consumption, the effectiveness of policy implementation and the continued role of public investment as a key growth driver.
At a webinar on Vietnam’s Economic Outlook for 2026 held on Jan 14, Nguyen Xuan Thanh, a senior lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, said domestic consumption is the biggest unknown factor for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026, as consumer confidence and demand present both recovery opportunities and lingering risks.
Thanh said the outlook for domestic consumption hinges largely on public confidence, although several positive signals have begun to emerge.
He said the labour market has shown signs of improvement, with employment in industrial zones recovering, informal service jobs rebounding alongside tourism, and incomes among the upper-middle class becoming more stable.
Thanh said rising property prices have made home ownership more difficult for many, but for households that already own homes, higher asset values have helped improve confidence and willingness to spend. Savings depleted during the Covid-19 period have also been largely replenished.
He highlighted the importance of institutional reform and State policies, saying that if reform directions are translated into concrete action, particularly through increased spending on social welfare such as tuition fee exemptions and expanded health insurance coverage, consumer confidence could improve significantly.
Drawing on China’s experience, Thanh said insufficient social welfare coverage often leads households to adopt a defensive mindset and cut back on spending, while strong government commitment to social security could serve as a catalyst for boosting domestic consumption.
He added that public investment will continue to be one of the main growth drivers in 2026, although the pace is unlikely to match 2025, which marked the end of the current term when disbursement pressures were particularly strong.
Under the State budget plan approved by the National Assembly, public investment capital in 2026 is expected to rise by 10.3% compared to 2025, reaching nearly 8% of GDP, one of the highest levels in recent years.
Maintaining export growth also plays a crucial role in stabilising employment and incomes for workers in industrial zones, which Thanh said is the key foundation for stimulating domestic consumption.
However, he said exports are forecast to face considerable challenges. The government is targeting export growth of around 8% in 2026, significantly lower than the 17% recorded in 2025.
Thanh said the target largely depends on exports to the US not falling sharply, while shipments to other markets maintain last year’s growth momentum.
Sharing a similar view on public investment, Dinh Hong Ky, chairman of the HCM City Green Business Association, said public and infrastructure investment is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026.
He said a series of major projects have been launched in southern Vietnam since early 2026, including metro lines, an underground link from HCM City to Can Gio, the Vung Tau sea-crossing bridge, Long Thành International Airport, and several expressways.
Ky said once large-scale infrastructure projects enter the implementation phase, progress tends to be sustained, allowing public investment in 2026 to potentially outpace the previous year and continue serving as an important engine for economic growth.
