A potential post-election alliance between Warisan and Barisan Nasional (BN) to form the Sabah government could reignite political instability and derail development efforts, analysts say.
They argue the parties’ long-standing rivalry makes any partnership fragile, suggesting it may be driven more by the personal ambitions of their leaders than by a shared policy agenda.
Formed in 2016 after Shafie Apdal’s acrimonious exit from Umno, Warisan won 21 seats in the 2018 state election.
Shafie became chief minister after Warisan ousted the BN state administration by securing a simple majority with support from then-ally Pakatan Harapan (PH) and several defecting BN assemblymen.
Bilcher Bala of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) said the long history of recriminations between Warisan and Sabah BN, now led by Bung Moktar Radin, could foster confusion and a sense of betrayal among supporters. In the absence of a clear agreement, he added, the partnership is unlikely to become a sustainable, policy-driven coalition.
“If negotiations focus on individual positions or posts, the alliance risks being fragile and will only last as long as both individuals derive direct benefits,” he told FMT.
Speculation about a covert Warisan-BN pact—dubbed “Kinabalu Move 2.0”—has intensified following reports of a closed-door meeting between party leaders.
Sources within Umno’s Supreme Council were reported as saying Shafie and BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi may have discussed an alliance to form the state government, with the possibility of Umno taking the chief minister’s post.
Shafie previously said Warisan would contest all 73 state seats at the upcoming Sabah election but did not mention post-election cooperation.
Zahid was reported as saying Umno would work with any coalition or party except Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
Tony Paridi Bagang of Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Sabah warned that public confidence may erode if a Warisan, Umno alliance is perceived as a vehicle for personal power.
“Any ensuing political uncertainty could delay development projects and investments,” he said.
Another analyst, Syahrudin Awang Ahmad of Borneo Geo-Politics & Electoral Studies (GeoPES), said such an alliance would spark difficult questions among both camps.
“The history of conflict between the two, with Umno/BN having toppled the Warisan government in 2020 to trigger a snap election, will fuel grassroots resistance. The narrative of ‘a vote for Warisan is a vote for Umno’ may erode public confidence, especially among younger voters wary of opportunistic politicians,” he said.
Syahrudin also warned of potential defections if the alliance is engineered to ensure the political survival of Shafie and Bung.
“It risks becoming a fragile and temporary alliance, creating uncertainty and undermining trust in Sabah’s democratic institutions. If this partnership is merely a stepping stone to grab power, Sabahans will feel deceived and may reject it.”
