Young and first-time voters are expected to play a decisive role in the 16th Johor state election following the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration, which significantly expanded the state’s electorate.
Political analysts believe the group could emerge as kingmakers in closely contested constituencies, as many young voters are not firmly aligned with any political party or ideology.
Ilham Centre research chief Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said the growing number of first-time voters across constituencies could determine the outcome in marginal seats.
‘Following the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration, first-time voters now make up a significant share of the electorate in every constituency. In closely contested seats, their voting preference could determine the eventual winner,’ he said.
Campaigns must target different voter groups
Mohd Yusri said political parties should tailor their campaign strategies to different voter demographics.
He said social media remains the most effective platform for engaging younger urban voters, while face-to-face campaigning continues to play a crucial role in reaching older voters in rural areas.
He added that fence-sitters are becoming less influenced by identity politics and are more likely to support candidates with credible policies, practical solutions and the ability to address issues affecting daily life.
According to him, combining an effective digital campaign with strong grassroots mobilisation will be a key factor in determining electoral success.
Youth bloc expected to be influential
Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub shared a similar view, saying political parties must strike the right balance between online engagement and traditional campaigning.
He described voters aged between 18 and 39, numbering about 1.2 million, as the most influential voting bloc in the election. He said they are more likely to judge candidates based on performance, credibility and their ability to solve problems rather than party loyalty.
Mohammad Tawfik noted that urban voters are generally more exposed to national political narratives and discussions on social media, while rural voters continue to be influenced by grassroots networks and candidates’ relationships with local communities.
‘Social media can create momentum, but grassroots machinery turns that momentum into votes. Parties that perform well online but lack strong grassroots support often struggle to win,’ he said.
Cost of living remains a key issue
Mohammad Tawfik said Johor voters are becoming more open to new candidates, but stressed that youth alone is insufficient to win support without credibility and capability.
He added that voter turnout, the choices made by fence-sitters and parties’ ability to address bread-and-butter issues such as wages, rising prices, housing and employment are likely to shape the election outcome.
‘Parties that can best convince voters they have solutions to the rising cost of living will have an advantage, as economic concerns may outweigh political slogans in this election,’ he said.
According to Election Commission statistics, more than 1.29 million registered voters in Johor are below the age of 40, comprising 587,888 voters aged 30 to 39, 544,657 aged 21 to 29, and 165,386 aged between 18 and 20.
The Johor state election will be held on July 11, with early voting scheduled for July 7.
