Umno stands to lose more than it would gain by working with PAS in the upcoming Melaka state election compared to continuing its alliance with Pakatan Harapan, according to political analysts.
Limited electoral benefit from PAS
Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Barisan Nasional enjoys the advantage of incumbency as it currently leads the Melaka government.
However, partnering with PAS could require Umno to surrender several seats under any pact arrangement.
She added that PAS holds a weak position in Melaka, offering Umno little prospect of meaningful vote gains.
“PAS is not a major force in Melaka. Even if Umno could get votes from PAS supporters, it wouldn’t be that much. If anything, Umno would have to give up seats for PAS to contest,” she told FMT.
Potential backlash in mixed areas
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said a pact might consolidate Malay support in constituencies where the community dominates.
Yet BN would likely face rejection in mixed and Chinese-majority seats.
He warned that such cooperation could deepen ethnic polarisation in the state and alienate more urban Malays in Melaka.
Based on 2018 election data, most of the 28 state seats in Melaka are Malay-majority, though fewer than half have a large Malay majority of 70 percent or higher.
Non-Malay voters form a significant portion of the electorate in several seats and hold the majority in five constituencies.
Umno Youth call and counterarguments
On Wednesday, Umno Youth chief Akmal Saleh called for his party to work with PAS in the next Melaka polls.
He argued that Malay political divisions had weakened the community’s influence even in areas where Malays form the majority.
Akmal rejected concerns that an Umno-PAS alliance would sideline non-Malays, saying the broader BN framework would remain in place to protect community interests.
Risk to multiracial positioning
Both analysts cautioned that aligning with PAS would undermine BN’s multiracial image and cost the coalition the non-Malay support it has gained through its PH alliance.
“Umno already has a good chunk of the Malay seats. BN would risk further alienating non-Malays by cooperating with PAS, so I don’t see the gain,” said Syaza.
Mazlan added that experimenting with a PAS pact in Melaka could strain Umno’s already tense relationship with PH and lead to clashes in future elections.
“There is a possibility that PH will decide to go solo in contesting for all parliamentary and state assembly seats, not only in Melaka but all across the country,” he said.
Beyond Malay unity narrative
Syaza and Mazlan also downplayed Akmal’s argument that Malay unity would be the decisive factor in Melaka.
They said such sentiments carry less weight in the state due to its multiracial makeup.
“I believe it still hinges on bread and butter grievances, the quality of candidates nominated and the services of incumbent assemblymen,” said Syaza.
Mazlan noted that Malay unification would only play a major role in seats where Malay voters clearly dominate the roll.
BN won 21 of the 28 seats in the 2021 Melaka polls, while PH took five and Perikatan Nasional secured two through Bersatu.
The Melaka legislative assembly’s five-year term ends in December, after which a state election must be held within 60 days.
