Bersatu’s role in the upcoming Melaka state election will test its ability to split Malay votes and prevent the Barisan Nasional (BN)-Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance from securing victories, says a political analyst.
Akademi Nusantara analyst Azmi Hassan said Bersatu was contesting the election to demonstrate to Pakatan Harapan (PH) that it could be a meaningful ally ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).
He said the party was seeking to prove its ability to draw Malay votes away from BN and PN candidates.
Azmi said a split in Malay votes could create opportunities for PH, particularly in the three mixed constituencies of Ayer Keroh, Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang, where both Bersatu and PH are contesting.
“I think Bersatu is trying to show that it can steal some Malay votes from the BN and PN candidates. It is trying to achieve this so that the cooperation between PH and Bersatu would be extended to GE16,” he told FMT.
PH is contesting 24 of the 28 seats in the Nov 14 election, while Bersatu is fielding candidates in eight constituencies, resulting in four direct contests between the two parties.
Three mixed seats in focus
Malay voters form a slight majority in Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang, while all three constituencies have significant Chinese and Indian voter populations.
Both Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang were won by BN in the 2021 election, with narrow majorities of 131 and 876 votes respectively.
Ayer Keroh, where PH will also face Bersatu, is a DAP stronghold. Chinese voters account for 47.6% of the electorate, followed by Malays at 42.4% and Indians at 8.3%.
DAP won the seat with a majority of 5,624 votes in 2021, when BN and PN contested against each other.
Melaka PH chief Adly Zahari had welcomed the multi-cornered contests involving Bersatu in the Nov 14 polls, saying they could give PH a greater advantage than straight fights against the BN-PN alliance.
Analyst questions Bersatu’s spoiler role
However, International Islamic University Malaysia analyst Syaza Shukri questioned whether Bersatu could draw enough Malay votes away from BN and PN to enable PH to win the four seats.
“Even if Bersatu could pull 10% of the Malay votes (in Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang), that would still not be enough since Malays make up 60% to 70% of the voters there,” she said.
Syaza said Bersatu could also have a limited impact in Ayer Keroh if BN and PN managed to secure Malay support and Chinese voter turnout was not particularly high.
She said Bersatu’s decision to contest against PH appeared to be an attempt to test which party was more appealing to voters, particularly non-Malays, but believed the arrangement would ultimately benefit BN-PN.
“I think Bersatu has come to accept its role as a spoiler,” she said, citing the party’s performance in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections earlier this year.
Bersatu contested 16 seats under the PN banner in Johor and 24 seats in Negeri Sembilan, but suffered heavy defeats in all the contests.
