Donald Trump will remain US president on the morning of November 4, but the outcome of the midterm elections held a day earlier could leave him facing a dramatically different political landscape.
Held roughly halfway through a president’s term, midterm elections are often seen as a referendum on the incumbent’s performance. Trump has actively encouraged voters to treat the election as a verdict on his presidency, telling them to ‘pretend I’m on the ballot’.
This year’s election will determine whether Trump’s Republican Party can retain control of Congress, with Democrats hoping to capitalise on growing dissatisfaction with his administration to seize the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.
Republicans, meanwhile, are fighting to preserve their congressional majorities and avoid another period of legislative gridlock and investigations into the White House.
What is at stake in the midterm elections?
The US Congress comprises two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both must approve federal legislation before it becomes law, and both play important roles in overseeing the executive branch.
All 435 voting seats in the House are being contested, with Republicans defending a narrow majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
In the Senate, 35 seats are being contested. These comprise 33 seats in regular elections and two special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill vacancies left before the end of the respective terms.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, compared with 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them. Democrats need to gain four seats to secure a majority.
Voters will also elect governors in 36 states and three US territories, bringing the total number of governorships being contested to 39.
Thousands of state legislative seats, local government positions and judicial posts are also up for grabs, alongside ballot measures covering issues such as taxes, abortion rights and voting regulations.
The congressional results will determine which party controls Congress during the final two years of Trump’s second term, while state-level contests will influence policies on education, reproductive rights, taxation and election administration.
Why the elections matter and key races to watch
Midterm elections have historically been difficult for the party occupying the White House. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections since 1946.
However, the trend is not inevitable. George W Bush’s Republicans gained seats in the 2002 midterms following the September 11 attacks, while Barack Obama’s Democrats suffered heavy losses in 2010. Trump’s Republicans also lost control of the House in 2018.
Republicans enter this election with a narrow advantage in the House and a more comfortable majority in the Senate. The RealClearPolitics average of national generic polls showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8.2 percentage points in early October.
Trump has also been compelled to hold campaign rallies in states traditionally considered Republican strongholds.
However, political polarisation and years of redistricting have reduced the number of genuinely competitive House districts. Reuters estimates that only about 40 to 50 House races are truly competitive.
Several Senate contests are attracting particular attention.
In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed is seeking to retain an open seat for Democrats against Republican Mike Rogers, who received a last-minute endorsement from Democrat Haley Stevens.
In Georgia, Democratic senator Jon Ossoff holds a comfortable polling lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins.
In Maine, Republican senator Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson in a state won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Ohio presents another major contest, with Democrat Sherrod Brown seeking a return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted.
Texas is also drawing considerable attention, with Democrat James Talarico challenging Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Republicans have spent about US$210 million to support Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals.
No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, while Trump carried the state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024.
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola’s Senate contest against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan has sparked controversy after Republicans accused her campaign of planting a second Dan Sullivan to confuse voters.
A judge dismissed a Trump-backed lawsuit seeking to block certification of Alaska’s Senate election results if Sullivan loses.
Other closely watched contests in Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire could determine control of the Senate. If the chamber is evenly split at 50-50, Republican Vice-President JD Vance would hold the deciding vote.
Latest polls show Democrats leading in Maine, North Carolina and Kansas, while the race in Ohio remains competitive. Democratic candidates are also mounting strong challenges in traditionally Republican states such as South Carolina and Mississippi.
In the House, Republicans are defending vulnerable seats in states including New York, Texas and Iowa. Democrats are also fighting to retain seats in districts affected by redrawn congressional boundaries.
Key gubernatorial contests include those in Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
Key issues, election integrity and possible outcomes
The cost of living remains a major concern among voters, with Democrats focusing their campaigns on the affordability of food, housing, fuel and healthcare.
The war in Iran has added another challenge for Republicans.
Immigration is also a defining issue. Polls suggest many voters believe the hardline approach taken by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has gone too far, potentially eroding the gains Trump made among Latino voters in 2024.
Other important issues include data centres, artificial intelligence, tariffs, trade, abortion rights, voting regulations and the future of democracy.
Democratic socialists have also secured notable victories in Democratic primaries, creating momentum for the party’s left wing.
Nevertheless, in closely contested races, candidates’ personal credibility, local connections and ability to attract independent voters can prove more influential than national party messages. Television advertising also remains an important campaign tool.
The integrity of the elections is another major concern, with scrutiny extending from voter registration to the certification of results.
Trump has repeatedly amplified concerns about election security through claims about threats to the US electoral system, some of which have been misleading or false.
The Justice Department has sued several states seeking access to unredacted voter rolls so they can be cross-checked against a federal immigration database to identify ineligible voters.
However, a federal judge ruled that the department’s policy was unlawful, citing limits on its authority and the risk of inaccurate data.
Concerns have also been raised over the use of immigration enforcement data in voter fraud investigations, efforts by the administration to change mail-in voting rules and the possible deployment of federal election monitors at polling stations.
The NAACP has filed a lawsuit challenging the planned deployment of monitors, arguing that their presence could intimidate voters.
Election-related disputes could continue after polling stations close, with voting rights advocates monitoring possible pressure on local officials to certify results, mass challenges to ballots and legal disputes that could delay or undermine the transfer of power.
A Democratic victory in either chamber of Congress would significantly restrict Trump’s ability to advance his domestic agenda and accelerate his transition into lame-duck status.
If Democrats take control of the House, Republicans would no longer be able to pass legislation through that chamber without Democratic support.
A Democratic majority could also launch investigations into the administration, demand documents and testimony, and subject senior officials to sustained congressional scrutiny. Pressure could also grow within the party’s support base for impeachment proceedings against Trump.
In the Senate, Democrats could block or delay Trump’s nominations for Cabinet positions, ambassadorships and federal judgeships, including potential Supreme Court appointments. They could also force the White House to negotiate on legislation.
Even if Republicans retain control of one or both chambers, a reduced majority could make governing more difficult, particularly when legislation requires near-unanimous support from Republican lawmakers.
State elections are equally important because governors and state legislatures influence policies on abortion access, education, taxation and voting procedures.
State legislatures also play a central role in drawing congressional district boundaries, although arrangements vary between states and some maps face legal challenges or are drawn by independent commissions.
Voting rules remain contentious, with several Republican-controlled states having introduced tighter requirements for identification, voter registration and mail-in voting.
Supporters argue that these measures protect election integrity, while critics say they could make it harder for eligible citizens to cast their ballots.
These disputes have taken on added significance as Trump continues to question election procedures and the legitimacy of results he dislikes.
Voting takes place on November 3, but the final results may not be known on election night. Closely contested races, differences in state procedures for counting early and postal ballots, recounts and legal challenges could delay the outcome.
Once the results are settled, attention is expected to shift towards the 2028 presidential election, as both parties seek to use November’s results as a foundation for their next battle for the White House.
