The Barisan Nasional (BN)-Perikatan Nasional (PN) alliance could potentially capture up to 122 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia in the next general election, GE16, according to the Ilham Centre.
However, the think tank said the projection is based on the assumption that voting patterns seen in Negeri Sembilan could be replicated nationwide.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said BN and PN could make significant gains if Umno and PAS, the Malay-Muslim parties in their respective coalitions, managed to persuade their supporters at the grassroots level to back each other’s candidates.
He said this could allow the alliance to capture seats previously won by Pakatan Harapan (PH) by narrow margins.
Hisommudin was responding to Parti Bangsa Malaysia president Larry Sng, who earlier this week suggested that Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) may no longer hold the kingmaker position in Malaysian politics.
Sng based his assessment on the fact that BN and PN together won 104 seats in GE15, just eight short of the 112 seats needed for a simple majority.
If BN and PN secure the projected 122 seats, they would have 10 more than the number required to form the federal government.
Hisommudin told FMT that such an outcome would be possible if Umno and PAS supporters genuinely accepted candidates from the other party.
“It can translate into victories in many marginal seats that PH previously won,” he said.
Of the 222 seats in the Dewan Rakyat, 166 are in Peninsular Malaysia, 31 are in Sarawak and 25 are in Sabah.
Malay-majority seats form key battleground
Malay voters account for more than 51% of the electorate in 138 parliamentary constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia. In 86 of these seats, Malays make up at least 65% of voters.
However, Hisommudin pointed out that not all of these constituencies are located in the Malay heartland.
“They include constituencies in towns and in areas at the fringes of the cities,” he said.
He said the results in these constituencies, particularly those where support for PH and BN or PN is almost evenly matched, could go either way.
“This is the real battleground. These are seats where the three main coalitions – PH, BN and PN – are expected to field candidates. This is where it will be determined which side eventually forms the federal government,” he said.
Hisommudin said the closest contests would likely take place in constituencies with multiracial electorates, particularly in semi-urban areas where Malays make up between 50% and 70% of voters.
“This is where Malay supporters of BN-PN will come up against non-Malays who are still inclined to vote for PH,” he said.
Two-way contest could reduce hung parliament risk
Hisommudin believes another hung parliament would be less likely if GE16 became a two-way contest between the BN-PN alliance and PH, as votes would not be split as extensively as they would in multi-cornered contests.
A simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat requires 112 seats.
In GE15 in 2022, no single party or coalition secured enough seats for a simple majority, resulting in a hung parliament.
BN, which won 30 seats, eventually agreed to join PH in forming a unity government, together with GPS, which won 23 seats, and GRS, which won seven.
The agreement paved the way for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim to become prime minister.
Seat negotiations could determine BN-PN prospects
Hisommudin cautioned that much could still change before GE16, meaning the eventual outcome remains uncertain.
He said the prevailing economic situation and cost of living could influence voter sentiment, along with disputes among allies and the selection of candidates.
For Francis Hutchinson, a senior fellow with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, the biggest test will be how BN and PN divide seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor.
So far, he said, the alliance had only been tested in states where reaching an agreement was relatively straightforward, namely Johor and Negeri Sembilan, where PAS is weaker.
PN fielded candidates in 11 of the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug 1 and 33 of the 56 seats in the Johor state election on July 11.
Bersatu, which has fallen out with PAS, contested 16 seats in Johor and 24 in Negeri Sembilan but failed to win any. In Negeri Sembilan, it contested under its own logo.
Hutchinson said BN and PN were likely to target many of the same Malay-majority and semi-urban seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor, making negotiations “very difficult”.
He said that while urban Malays were likely to support BN-PN, their votes might not be sufficient to determine the outcome in large, mixed and urban constituencies where Malays make up a smaller proportion of the electorate.
In such seats, voter turnout, particularly among non-Malay voters, could be a determining factor, he added.
Hutchinson also said a formal partnership with PN could make it more difficult for BN’s smaller component parties to attract non-Malay voters in mixed constituencies.
“One of the takeaways from the Johor polls is that BN, and particularly its non-Umno components, can be electorally viable. However, this will be undercut if BN explicitly partners with PN.
“Already some within the other BN parties have voiced concern about the implications of teaming up with PN,” he said.
