Beijing has rolled out its familiar toolkit against Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi linked a possible Taiwan conflict to her country’s security—halting seafood imports, warning tourists, and cancelling Japanese artists’ performances. Yet one powerful weapon remains unused: rare earths.
The 2010 Lesson Still Fresh
In 2010, a territorial spat saw China effectively embargo rare earth exports to Japan, forcing Tokyo into a frantic search for alternatives. Those minerals are vital for electric vehicles, smartphones, and missiles.
This time, analysts and former US officials believe Beijing will hold back.
Why Beijing Is Hesitant This Time
Fifteen years ago Japan stood alone. Today the world knows how much it depends on China’s mining and processing dominance. A rare earths ban now would only push more countries to speed up diversification—and deepen cooperation with the United States.
Adding to the caution, Donald Trump recently claimed he and Xi Jinping had settled rare earth export issues “for the world” during talks in South Korea. An aggressive move against Japan could upset that fragile understanding, especially after Trump promised Takaichi “anything” she wants.
Market Access Preferred Over Supply Cut
Former US trade negotiator Wendy Cutler says playing the rare earths card would be risky for Beijing.
“It would confirm to everyone the urgent need for alternative supplies and drive them straight into America’s arms,” she warned.
Philip Luck, who worked on countering Chinese economic coercion under the Biden administration, agrees China now prefers restricting market access—it hurts but carries lower reputational cost when Beijing wants to remain the world’s factory.
Japan Already Less Vulnerable
Since 2010, Japan has slashed its rare earth dependence on China to around 60%, though it has crept back above 70% lately. Domestic stockpiles and new supply from Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths give Tokyo a stronger buffer than most nations.
Pain Without the Big Gun—for Now
So far Beijing’s retaliation has been sharp but measured: seafood imports frozen, about 30% of planned Chinese tourist trips cancelled (costing Japan up to $1.2 billion), and sudden “equipment malfunctions” wiping Japanese concerts off the schedule.
Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yongqian warned on Thursday of further steps if Takaichi “continues down the wrong path,” while diplomatic talks this week ended with China still dissatisfied.
For now, Beijing seems confident it can make Japan feel the heat without reaching for the rare earths trigger—and without giving the rest of the world another reason to build supply chains that leave China out.
