Exit polls suggest Israeli voters have dealt a setback to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with neither his bloc nor that of his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, securing a clear majority in parliament.
The results point to weeks of coalition negotiations, with uncertainty over whether the opposition can unite to form a government or whether Israel will face another election.
Exit polls released early Wednesday by major Israeli television stations indicated that Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s each secured about 51 seats, while Arab-led parties won around 18 seats in the 120-member parliament.
Although Netanyahu’s Likud party could emerge as the largest single party, dissatisfaction with his alliance with far-right groups and anger over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews appear to have weakened his bloc’s chances of returning to power.
Netanyahu vows to form right-wing government
Netanyahu delivered a defiant speech to supporters early Wednesday, insisting that Israel needed a strong right-wing nationalist government.
He also criticised Arab-led parties and warned against including them in a governing coalition.
Eisenkot, meanwhile, said the exit polls reflected a ‘lack of confidence’ in Netanyahu and pledged to form a new government.
Supporters at Eisenkot’s party headquarters celebrated the projected results, while backers of far-right parties aligned with Netanyahu expressed disappointment.
However, exit polls are subject to error. Preliminary results were expected in the coming hours, while final results were expected in the following days and could differ from the projections.
The election was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s nearly uninterrupted 17-year rule, which has left Israelis deeply divided over the country’s political direction.
The wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, along with settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have fuelled international criticism, strained ties with Israel’s closest allies and contributed to rising antisemitism.
Coalition negotiations could take weeks
Israel’s president will ask the party leader considered most likely to form a government, usually the leader of the party with the most seats, to assemble a coalition.
If Likud emerges as the largest party, Netanyahu could argue that he should be given the opportunity to form the next government.
Eisenkot, however, is expected to face pressure to reach an agreement with Arab-led parties. Netanyahu and his allies are likely to portray such a partnership as illegitimate and even treasonous.
Netanyahu had warned before the election that Arab parties could determine the outcome, claiming they were receiving ‘truly massive support’ and turning out to vote in unprecedented numbers.
If neither side can secure a majority coalition, another election could be held early next year. Israel previously held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 amid similar political deadlock.
No single party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, making coalition agreements essential to forming a government. Minority governments are also possible but must rely on support or cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.
Netanyahu’s current coalition had reached 68 members before beginning to unravel over the past year.
Voters divided over Israel’s future
The election was Israel’s first national vote since Hamas’ Oct 7, 2023, attack, which triggered the war in Gaza and related conflicts.
Turnout exceeded 77%, the highest since 1999, according to the Central Elections Committee. More than seven million people were eligible to vote, with tens of thousands reportedly travelling from overseas to cast their ballots.
The contest highlighted divisions over the country’s identity, pitting Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies against those seeking to preserve Israel’s liberal and secular foundations.
Netanyahu’s supporters view him as an experienced leader who has defended Israel’s security and Jewish identity amid international pressure. His critics accuse him of deepening political divisions, prolonging the war in Gaza for political reasons and weakening the country’s democratic institutions.
He is also facing an ongoing corruption trial, while opponents have criticised the system that allows ultra-Orthodox religious Jews to avoid military conscription.
Parties likely to support Eisenkot have pledged to improve Israel’s international standing, push for the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men and strengthen judicial independence.
The election also unfolded against the backdrop of growing international isolation over Israel’s conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. Public support for Israel in the United States has fallen, while European and other partners have imposed sanctions.
Netanyahu also faces an international arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity in Gaza, accusations he denies.
Tensions with Iran remained another major issue during the campaign, with Netanyahu warning Tehran that it would face ‘a devastating blow’ if it attacked Israel.
